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Thread: You best be buying cheap and stacking deep!

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    Team GunsNet Silver 04/2014 El Jefe's Avatar

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    You best be buying cheap and stacking deep!

    Not to sound like Chicken Little or anything, but whiskey prices, quality and availability are going to really suck one day soon.

    As we know, bourbon takes anywhere from 4 to 12 years to mature. Add to that the fact that premium offerings are more popular than ever, and foreign markets are booming, plus whiskey stocks are being used now for flavored bourbons as well. (This flavored nonsense is an abomination!) And you should be able to see the predicament the distilleries are in.

    Their aged stocks are limited obviously by what was put up 8 to 12 years ago, and those must be used in the smartest possible manner. They are businesses after all. One rumor I've run across that makes sense is one concerning the wheated bourbons produced by Buffalo Trace. Allegedly, Buffalo Trace has only two wheat mash bills. One used solely for William Larue Weller and the other for all remaining wheated bourbons they make. . . . . . . . Stop just a second and contemplate that bit of information.

    Has it dawned on you yet? If its true that Buffalo Trace only has the two wheat mash bills, and one is used solely for the ultra premium William Larue Weller, then by default that means that both the regular Weller offerings, plus the entirety of the Van Winkle (including Pappy's) line is using the same juice as the regular Weller.

    Now I know some of you are wondering; how can this be? Well, never forget the dramatic effect aging, rick house location and proof have on whiskey. For example: Evan Williams comes in many variations, but lets look at 3 of them here. 1. Evan Williams Black Label, 2. Evan Williams BIB, 3. Evan Williams Single Barrel. Now, anyone who has drank all 3 of these will know that there is a considerable difference between the three. Yet, there is no difference in the mash bill, they are one in same. The only difference, as we've discussed, is age, proof and rick house location. Now, consider a scenario where the Single Barrel becomes very, very popular in one or more markets, what do you do? Do you keep selling most of your stocks as black and white label offerings at around $12 per. Or do you reserve more for the Single Barrel that sells in most markets here for $36 per 750ml.? (that $36 bottle in the US would fetch $90 to $100 in Australia or Taiwan)

    Now, back to Buffalo Trace and their wheaters. Weller Reserve, Weller Antique and Weller 12 year, sell for about $18 to $26 per 750ml. The Van Winkle and Pappy lines start at around $45 and zoom to over $100. And they can't keep any of the Van Winkle or Pappy bottles on the shelf here, let alone the rest of the world where these whiskey's suddenly enjoy a top shelf reputation. Some of the quoted prices I've seen for Pappy's in the greater Asian market are simply insane. So, with this radical change in the market, and with limited stocks that cannot be increased until years down the road, what happens? Lots of people are all ready grumbling that the Weller 12 is very hard to come by all of a sudden, and the Antique is scarcer than usual. Think about it. do you sell this mash bill at $45 for the 10 year old Rip Van Winkle, or age it two more years and sell it as Weller 12 for $26? Or, do you age it 3 additional years and sell it to the Asians as Pappy-15 for $100+ per bottle?

    There are many, many other examples, but the rub is this; if bourbon remains as popular world wide, or God forbid gets more popular, than it is now, there's a large, can't be helped. lag in there that will wreck havoc on the price and availability of all bourbon whiskey.

    So, my plan is to buy 3 bottles where I used to buy 1, and stash 2 of them for the coming dark age.

    Again, these are the issues:

    Flavored bourbon.

    Demand for top shelf bourbon.

    Burgeoning foreign bourbon markets.

    Do the math, then cry.
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    Team GunsNet Silver 04/2014 El Jefe's Avatar

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    Okay, obviously we can't bunker away everything we may like, good lord think of the expense! I dunno, I think it best to select like say 3 or 4 mid-shelf favorites and buy at case prices.

    I'm just starting to around at different sources and prices, but just to throw some examples out; I can get Old Grand Dad-114 for around $250 for a case of 12.

    Evan Williams BIB for $180 per case of 12

    Very Old Barton 100 proof, at $160 per case of 12

    Old Grand Dad BIB, at $220 per case of 12.

    Rittenhouse Rye BIB $280 per case of 12.

    I'd imagine with some serious hunting all of these prices could be bested, but it gives and idea of what case prices look like. Some aren't much better than retail for a single bottle.
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    Contributor 05/2012

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    Good thread, sir....
    Since my wife won't read this, I think I have about 9 bottles open and 20 in the bunker.
    But your thoughts of buying the ones you mention by name has merit, and I like your selection.
    I hope I never run out of the Ritt Rye BIB or the OGD114.
    And, CHEERS to Derby Day and mint julips!

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    Team GunsNet Silver 04/2014 El Jefe's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by CigarGuy View Post
    Good thread, sir....
    Since my wife won't read this, I think I have about 9 bottles open and 20 in the bunker.
    But your thoughts of buying the ones you mention by name has merit, and I like your selection.
    I hope I never run out of the Ritt Rye BIB or the OGD114.
    And, CHEERS to Derby Day and mint julips!
    Agreed. How much would it suck to wake up one day and find the prices on both Rittenhouse and OGD-114, had doubled and that availability was starting to dry up? I'm just praying the overseas bourbon craze is short lived. It'll always be popular in Japan, those guys love bourbon! But hopefully China will decide to drink scotch or something. Stan, have tried the Evan Williams BIB?

    I read recently where Aussies were bragging they got ahold of a bottle of Rittenhouse Rye BIB, for $90.00., Ouch!

    I have come to the conclusion over time, Aussies will put up with about anything.
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    Contributor 05/2012

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    Do you think this "craze" will, in any way, mimic the cigar craze of the late '90's?
    EVERYONE started smoking cigars and every "Don Nobody" started making un aged,crap
    cigars because price didn't matter. Now, tobacco ages WAY faster then whiskey, but
    Some of the trends are hauntingly similar?

  6. #6
    Team GunsNet Silver 04/2014 El Jefe's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by CigarGuy View Post
    Do you think this "craze" will, in any way, mimic the cigar craze of the late '90's?
    EVERYONE started smoking cigars and every "Don Nobody" started making un aged,crap
    cigars because price didn't matter. Now, tobacco ages WAY faster then whiskey, but
    Some of the trends are hauntingly similar?
    No, and here's why. Distilleries are very expensive to set up plus you have very stringent government regulations on every aspect of production. Its one thing for some guy in Mexico to buy some tobacco, hire a few rollers and some product starved distributor to unleash the junk on the ignorant consumer.

    I don't know why this has happened really, but a lot of folks who rode the wave of the vodka craze, are now getting in on the top shelf bourbon's. It will play itself out here sooner or later, but its the foreign markets that could be problematic. There are millions of Chinese who now have disposable income, if they decide they like bourbon, look out.
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    Thanks, Mr Sunshine!

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    Team GunsNet Silver 04/2014 El Jefe's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by CigarGuy View Post
    Thanks, Mr Sunshine!
    Eh, better to see it coming and prepare, than to get caught with your pants down, so to speak.

    I dunno, maybe it won't happen, but the supply of high quality white oak barrels is already becoming an issue. A good size bit of stave production is done right here in Missouri. I know we're not short on trees, its just that the stave mills never anticipated this avalanche of orders. Thats another thing that will hinder start-ups, high quality oak barrels can't be bought just anywhere, and everything the big mills can produce is already spoken for by the big distilleries. On a side note; one of the big mills of the Independent Stave Co., is just down the road here at Lebonon, they make barrels for most of the big boys in Kentucky. IIRC, more white oak is logged each year in Missouri than any other state.

    http://www.independentstavecompany.com/

    There are other large stave mills here in this area too, just can't of the name off the top of my head.

    http://www.americanstavecompany.com/

    http://mcginnisbourbonbarrels.com/

    http://www.mid-weststaveexchange.com/#!our_story/c161y

    http://www.perryvillestave.com/about-us-1/history/

    http://www.usgennet.org/usa/ar/count...ne/pjstave.htm

    There are also hundreds of smaller stave and barrel companies all over Missouri and northern Arkansas too.
    Last edited by El Jefe; 05-03-2014 at 03:26 PM.
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  9. #9
    Senior Member TEN-32's Avatar

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    Don't look at this as a problem but an opportunity. Buy stock in bourbon distillers.
    Face your fear, accept your war.

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    Senior Member TEN-32's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by CigarGuy View Post
    And, CHEERS to Derby Day and mint julips!
    And to you fine sir...
    Face your fear, accept your war.

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    Team GunsNet Silver 04/2014 El Jefe's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by TEN-32 View Post
    Don't look at this as a problem but an opportunity. Buy stock in bourbon distillers.
    Probably a good point, but it'll still suck when Eagle Rare, if you can get it, is selling at $80.00 a bottle.

    I noticed yesterday when I was out looking that they've flipped the switch back on the Evan Williams single Barrel. I had been getting it at $25 per bottle, now its back up to $36.00. this happened basically over night. I'm kicking myself for not stocking up on it when it was cheap.

    But, I'm not asleep at the wheel, I've bought 10 bottles in the last 48 hours. I've got two guys here in town i need to talk to about case prices on OGD-114 and Elijah Craig. Both will be well north of $30 by next summer.
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  12. #12
    Team GunsNet Silver 04/2014 El Jefe's Avatar

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    Heh, I've never drank a mint julep.
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    Senior Member TEN-32's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by El Jefe View Post
    Heh, I've never drank a mint julep.
    I modified the technique a bit for round 2. Didn't like all that muddled mint in my mouth.
    Face your fear, accept your war.

  14. #14
    Team GunsNet Silver 04/2014 El Jefe's Avatar

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    So do you make syrup and all?

    IIRR, its bourbon, crushed ice, simple syrup and mint. Right?
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    Senior Member TEN-32's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by El Jefe View Post
    So do you make syrup and all?

    IIRR, its bourbon, crushed ice, simple syrup and mint. Right?
    I'm muddling the mint with powdered sugar and club soda. Then I add the hooch. Strain over crushed ice. Simple syrup would maybe be better but more effort for a once a year thing.
    Face your fear, accept your war.

  16. #16
    Team GunsNet Silver 04/2014 El Jefe's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by El Jefe View Post
    Probably a good point, but it'll still suck when Eagle Rare, if you can get it, is selling at $80.00 a bottle.

    I noticed yesterday when I was out looking that they've flipped the switch back on the Evan Williams single Barrel. I had been getting it at $25 per bottle, now its back up to $36.00. this happened basically over night. I'm kicking myself for not stocking up on it when it was cheap.

    But, I'm not asleep at the wheel, I've bought 10 bottles in the last 48 hours. I've got two guys here in town i need to talk to about case prices on OGD-114 and Elijah Craig. Both will be well north of $30 by next summer.
    I need to amend this because its not correct, the actual number in the last 48 hours is 13 bottles.

    Crisis averted!
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  17. #17
    Team GunsNet Silver 04/2014 El Jefe's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by TEN-32 View Post
    I'm muddling the mint with powdered sugar and club soda. Then I add the hooch. Strain over crushed ice. Simple syrup would maybe be better but more effort for a once a year thing.
    Makes sense. As I've said, I've never had one, are they any good?
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  18. #18
    Senior Member TEN-32's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by El Jefe View Post
    Makes sense. As I've said, I've never had one, are they any good?
    No...lol.
    Face your fear, accept your war.

  19. #19
    Team GunsNet Silver 04/2014 El Jefe's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by TEN-32 View Post
    No...lol.
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  20. #20
    Senior Member TEN-32's Avatar

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    Complex minty nose. Floral and minty on the front and a strong minty finish. Theres a lot of mint going on here...balanced mintiness with a hint of mint. And a sweet minty mintiness.
    Face your fear, accept your war.

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