Not to sound like Chicken Little or anything, but whiskey prices, quality and availability are going to really suck one day soon.

As we know, bourbon takes anywhere from 4 to 12 years to mature. Add to that the fact that premium offerings are more popular than ever, and foreign markets are booming, plus whiskey stocks are being used now for flavored bourbons as well. (This flavored nonsense is an abomination!) And you should be able to see the predicament the distilleries are in.

Their aged stocks are limited obviously by what was put up 8 to 12 years ago, and those must be used in the smartest possible manner. They are businesses after all. One rumor I've run across that makes sense is one concerning the wheated bourbons produced by Buffalo Trace. Allegedly, Buffalo Trace has only two wheat mash bills. One used solely for William Larue Weller and the other for all remaining wheated bourbons they make. . . . . . . . Stop just a second and contemplate that bit of information.

Has it dawned on you yet? If its true that Buffalo Trace only has the two wheat mash bills, and one is used solely for the ultra premium William Larue Weller, then by default that means that both the regular Weller offerings, plus the entirety of the Van Winkle (including Pappy's) line is using the same juice as the regular Weller.

Now I know some of you are wondering; how can this be? Well, never forget the dramatic effect aging, rick house location and proof have on whiskey. For example: Evan Williams comes in many variations, but lets look at 3 of them here. 1. Evan Williams Black Label, 2. Evan Williams BIB, 3. Evan Williams Single Barrel. Now, anyone who has drank all 3 of these will know that there is a considerable difference between the three. Yet, there is no difference in the mash bill, they are one in same. The only difference, as we've discussed, is age, proof and rick house location. Now, consider a scenario where the Single Barrel becomes very, very popular in one or more markets, what do you do? Do you keep selling most of your stocks as black and white label offerings at around $12 per. Or do you reserve more for the Single Barrel that sells in most markets here for $36 per 750ml.? (that $36 bottle in the US would fetch $90 to $100 in Australia or Taiwan)

Now, back to Buffalo Trace and their wheaters. Weller Reserve, Weller Antique and Weller 12 year, sell for about $18 to $26 per 750ml. The Van Winkle and Pappy lines start at around $45 and zoom to over $100. And they can't keep any of the Van Winkle or Pappy bottles on the shelf here, let alone the rest of the world where these whiskey's suddenly enjoy a top shelf reputation. Some of the quoted prices I've seen for Pappy's in the greater Asian market are simply insane. So, with this radical change in the market, and with limited stocks that cannot be increased until years down the road, what happens? Lots of people are all ready grumbling that the Weller 12 is very hard to come by all of a sudden, and the Antique is scarcer than usual. Think about it. do you sell this mash bill at $45 for the 10 year old Rip Van Winkle, or age it two more years and sell it as Weller 12 for $26? Or, do you age it 3 additional years and sell it to the Asians as Pappy-15 for $100+ per bottle?

There are many, many other examples, but the rub is this; if bourbon remains as popular world wide, or God forbid gets more popular, than it is now, there's a large, can't be helped. lag in there that will wreck havoc on the price and availability of all bourbon whiskey.

So, my plan is to buy 3 bottles where I used to buy 1, and stash 2 of them for the coming dark age.

Again, these are the issues:

Flavored bourbon.

Demand for top shelf bourbon.

Burgeoning foreign bourbon markets.

Do the math, then cry.