LAGC
11-03-2012, 06:40 PM
A poster on Democratic Underground made a bet with Dean Chambers (of UnSkewedPolls.com):
Subject: A Proposition re: Polls
At 11:59pm EST on November 5th, I will take screenshots of the projected EV total for Mitt Romney at FiveThirtyEight, and the projected EV total for Mitt Romney at UnSkewedPolls. (At present these numbers are 242.5 and 359, respectively.) I will invite you and any interested third party to do the same, so that everything is kept honest.
For every electoral vote by which Nate Silver's projection deviates from Romney's actual projected EV total following the election, I will owe you twenty dollars, For every electoral vote by which YOUR projection deviates from Romney's actual projected EV total following the election, you will owe me twenty dollars. The loser will pay the winner the difference.
Payment will be due at noon EST on November 7th, or when at least three major news outlets (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News, PBS) have projected a final electoral vote tally, whichever comes last.
I will be posting this email on the internet; I will similarly post any response you send my way in a public forum unless you expressly refuse permission for me to do so. If I refuse to pay after the deadline, you may have grounds for a lawsuit. If I back out of the challenge, you can tell everyone that David John Wellman of Burnsville, MN, is a lying coward. (Naturally the same is true if you refuse to pay or back out, but I'm not worried about that -- you strike me as an honest guy.)
I await your response.
DJW
He responded an hour later:
There is a valid problem with such a projection...can you cut a human being in half? Each electoral vote represents one elected elector who will cast one undivided vote for president. Any electoral vote projections that is in halves is by definition wrong already. One of the candidates could receive 242 or 243 electoral votes, but not 242.5.
As for the bet I can agree to that but have to stipulate, given how MANY different projections and analyses are on my site, that my OFFICIAL projection/prediction of the election will be the final revised version of this:
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm
The actual one that will be my final projection/prediction of the presidential race will be at this address:
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_03.cfm
That isn't up yet but it will be. I expect Nate Silver to be off on 2-3 states where Romney will unexpectedly win. At $20.00 per electoral vote, the possible upset states could cost you some money:
New Hampshire: $80
Pennsylvania: $400
Ohio: $360
Michigan: $320
Wisconsin: $200
Minnesota: $200
Oregon: $140
Colorado: $180
New Mexico: $100
Nevada: $120
The very accurate projection by the two U. of Colorado professors has Obama winning Nevada but Romney winning New Mexico and Minnesota and Colorado. Nate Silver could cost you $480 for those three states.
But I wouldn't be surprised if Nate changes his predictions at the very last minute so they almost echo mine, assuming he wants to be accurate rather than try to predict Obama winning.
Dean
http://upload.democraticunderground.com/10021653878
Hot damn! Someone is going to owe some serious money come Wednesday.
:laugh:
Subject: A Proposition re: Polls
At 11:59pm EST on November 5th, I will take screenshots of the projected EV total for Mitt Romney at FiveThirtyEight, and the projected EV total for Mitt Romney at UnSkewedPolls. (At present these numbers are 242.5 and 359, respectively.) I will invite you and any interested third party to do the same, so that everything is kept honest.
For every electoral vote by which Nate Silver's projection deviates from Romney's actual projected EV total following the election, I will owe you twenty dollars, For every electoral vote by which YOUR projection deviates from Romney's actual projected EV total following the election, you will owe me twenty dollars. The loser will pay the winner the difference.
Payment will be due at noon EST on November 7th, or when at least three major news outlets (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News, PBS) have projected a final electoral vote tally, whichever comes last.
I will be posting this email on the internet; I will similarly post any response you send my way in a public forum unless you expressly refuse permission for me to do so. If I refuse to pay after the deadline, you may have grounds for a lawsuit. If I back out of the challenge, you can tell everyone that David John Wellman of Burnsville, MN, is a lying coward. (Naturally the same is true if you refuse to pay or back out, but I'm not worried about that -- you strike me as an honest guy.)
I await your response.
DJW
He responded an hour later:
There is a valid problem with such a projection...can you cut a human being in half? Each electoral vote represents one elected elector who will cast one undivided vote for president. Any electoral vote projections that is in halves is by definition wrong already. One of the candidates could receive 242 or 243 electoral votes, but not 242.5.
As for the bet I can agree to that but have to stipulate, given how MANY different projections and analyses are on my site, that my OFFICIAL projection/prediction of the election will be the final revised version of this:
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm
The actual one that will be my final projection/prediction of the presidential race will be at this address:
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_03.cfm
That isn't up yet but it will be. I expect Nate Silver to be off on 2-3 states where Romney will unexpectedly win. At $20.00 per electoral vote, the possible upset states could cost you some money:
New Hampshire: $80
Pennsylvania: $400
Ohio: $360
Michigan: $320
Wisconsin: $200
Minnesota: $200
Oregon: $140
Colorado: $180
New Mexico: $100
Nevada: $120
The very accurate projection by the two U. of Colorado professors has Obama winning Nevada but Romney winning New Mexico and Minnesota and Colorado. Nate Silver could cost you $480 for those three states.
But I wouldn't be surprised if Nate changes his predictions at the very last minute so they almost echo mine, assuming he wants to be accurate rather than try to predict Obama winning.
Dean
http://upload.democraticunderground.com/10021653878
Hot damn! Someone is going to owe some serious money come Wednesday.
:laugh: