Just in case you're not tired of gun store and ammo shortage reports...

[Altarboy]

Well all the local Walmarts are stripped, unless you have a 22-250 or 44-40. The Nashville Charlotte Pike Walmart only had 2 boxes of .22 short and 1 of 25 06. Also, there is plenty of 12 and 20 g bird shot.
This morning my son and I went to The Outpost and wow it looked like a gun show. It was crowded and they had a few things in stock. A Saiga is now 980.00 and 7.62 is 299.00 for a 700 rd. can. If I was loaded, I might have bitten that one. No .223. No .223 reloading stuff. Lots of people buying. Several women looking at guns and asking serious questions.
So we went to On Target in Murfreesboro. No ammo except some RIO shot shells. WASRs and an AK-74 were 899.00 and up. I hope all this blows over but, somehow, I think this is here to stay. Hope I'm wrong.

[Kadmos]

Hope I'm wrong.

I think you are. Just look back to the last shortage, 380 auto was like $50 a box, 9mm was tough to find and double the price it was a few weeks before. But a few months later and stuff was back to normal.

It's amazing how even a small increase in sales can cause a real backlog. And it takes time for manufacturing to catch up, fill in the immediate need and then get actual resupplying ready for the future.

What does surprise me though is how bad ammo manufacturers are about anticipating the market needs and how slow they are about resupplying.

It's almost as if a shortage actually increases revenue for them...

[Schuetzenman]

The local wallyworld here in GA had about 15 boxes TOTAL of any kind of ammo. Every time I go in I check and it gets more empty every time. I was looking for some CCI Stingers. Sales guy said .22 LR is about one of the hardest to come by. They had some Fudd guns back in the case again. The only semi's were Marlin .22 LR models, no 10-22 Rugers.

[Schuetzenman]

I think you are. Just look back to the last shortage, 380 auto was like $50 a box, 9mm was tough to find and double the price it was a few weeks before. But a few months later and stuff was back to normal.

It's amazing how even a small increase in sales can cause a real backlog. And it takes time for manufacturing to catch up, fill in the immediate need and then get actual resupplying ready for the future.

What does surprise me though is how bad ammo manufacturers are about anticipating the market needs and how slow they are about resupplying.

It's almost as if a shortage actually increases revenue for them...

I have to disagree with your premis. This time it is MUCH worse. Dems talking about outright bans or and confiscations have lit the fuse on a buying frenzy far worse than 1994 or 2008 when obma got elected the first time. I just got done looking at Spikes Tactical. On thier front page it says their orders from April last year are just now getting processed and that new orders can expect a 12 month wait. I looked at Blackdog Machine, they make .22 LR mags for the AR converisons and dedicated uppers. All back ordered, no mags in stock. I think they said March would be when orders placed now would be in stock. Del-Ton 30,000 rifle back log, not taking orders. Nobody that I can think of is taking orders for AR rifles. Magazine back orders are no longer being taken at Brownell's for most AR mags or other type high cap mags.

Never seen it where I couldn't find ANY .22 LR ammo, that is the case now, none, zero and no eta on when any will be in anywhere.

[Dafapa]

I too got the sense this was worse than the 2008 Obama panic buying. What I don't get is why an industry so prone to panic buying appears to have 0 capacity to deal with it when it happens. I think steady state demand is fairly modest, and they don't want to put the money into expanding manufacturing capacity because they know its only temporary. In 2008 I think it took a year or 2 for the ammo situation to level out. I can't imagine how long this is going to take to get fixed.

[NAPOTS]

I remember 94 well even though I was very young at the time e. I think there are several key differences;
1. The percentage of fudds among us was higher in 94. Black guns are much more accepted than they used to be. Many bun owners thought of assault rifles as a fringe element in the past.
2. Many young people are into guns today and the guns they are interested in are generally more tactical than those of past generations.
3. The internet has provided us with a way to unite that we didn't have in 94. Yes I k low we had the internet. But. O where near as many people were on it.
4. Even ,any non gu. Owners accept semi autos as main stream.
I think this gives us a lot better chance of defeating the dems this time around.

[Kadmos]

Never seen it where I couldn't find ANY .22 LR ammo, that is the case now, none, zero and no eta on when any will be in anywhere.

Local Walmart here had .22 yesterday, as well as 38sp, .40 .45 and a fair amount of general hunting calibers. I didn't look specifically for anything, just happened to walk past the case. It had less than usual, but was still fairly stocked.

Stuff like that conversion mags, they may actually order parts some contracted parts like once a year.

My ex-wife used to work as a purchasing agent, it was amazing how far ahead they would order stuff, she was constantly making deals where the parts would all show up to be built a year or more from the order. I asked her about what they do if they have a run on something, she would shrug and say "We know within a few hundred units what we will sell in a year, a run isn't going to happen, companies that plan well already know how much they need, but if for some reason we did, which we won't...we would be fucked, they would have to wait"

Obviously that doesn't hold true for every market, some things do have runs, sometimes regular runs happen in specific markets. Companies should have plans for this, but obviously some don't.

Personally I thought the other ammo run was worse (2008), I couldn't find shit. But then again I needed shit back then and now I really don't, so maybe that one just seemed worse.

[NAPOTS]

Kadmos, check your Walmart again tomorrow. Mine has been selling out their ammo shipments within a day or two

[Kadmos]

Kadmos, check your Walmart again tomorrow. Mine has been selling out their ammo shipments within a day or two

Can't got other stuff to do tomorrow ;)

But likely yes they will run out in short order.


The thing to remember is that for the ammo this will work itself out, it's just going to take a bit of time. If we want it to work itself out sooner we need to calm down and stop buying and wait a bit.

[Punk]

I can't imagine how long this is going to take to get fixed.

It's gonna take a looong time. Obama is going to talk gun control in his inauguration speech, that's sure to add a few months to the backlog.

And worse, he is going into full campaign mode again. With tv spots etc, the whole deal. Concerning the budget and gun control and immigration. "Taking his message straight to the people" as they say. Even the Fudd guns will be sold out by summer time.

[Sergi762]

It's hit the pistol oddities as well... I've been looking for some 7.62 tok and short of J&G's Polish tins I am about to pull my hair out trying to get some.I will say this, and how it came to be I don't know: 7.62X39 is still available here and there. I thought that and other Russian calibers would be drained but there they sat in Smyrna. Price gouging is of course rampant.

[T2K]

I don't think this is hard to explain:

Businesses want to work on a "lean" basis. Holding inventory costs money. They want to make what they can sell. Not less, but certainly not more either.

If all of the sudden there was a run on toothpaste, where 3 years of normal sales volume was bought in 2 weeks (which is a stat I read about PMags) - you can damn sure bet it would take a while for toothpaste to "get back to normal" too.

I am overseas right now. I won't be back in the US to go shooting again until perhaps end 2013. I am pretty sure that, when I do, I'll be able to to go online and order some 5.56 (I have zero at home right now) at near the same prices as I could have 1 month ago.

[Kadmos]

I don't think this is hard to explain:

Businesses want to work on a "lean" basis. Holding inventory costs money. They want to make what they can sell. Not less, but certainly not more either.

If all of the sudden there was a run on toothpaste, where 3 years of normal sales volume was bought in 2 weeks (which is a stat I read about PMags) - you can damn sure bet it would take a while for toothpaste to "get back to normal" too.

I am overseas right now. I won't be back in the US to go shooting again until perhaps end 2013. I am pretty sure that, when I do, I'll be able to to go online and order some 5.56 (I have zero at home right now) at near the same prices as I could have 1 month ago.

Yep.

Plus, businesses will only allow backorders to cover what they already have contracts for.

So if they have a contract with someone till April for X number of boxes at X price they will only let you backorder until they have sold that ammo.

They know that after that THEY need to renegotiate prices from their supplier, so they can't sell beyond that at anything near a known price.

This is part of what makes these rising prices even harder to swallow personally, most of these guys know when and exactly how much ammo will be coming in in the future but are still going to charge everything they can in the meantime.

Obviously, most are also scrambling to get extra supply in the short term, so they can have something to sell, at higher prices, in the meantime.

I'm pretty confidant saying a lot of people will end up cancelling the backorders long before they arrive because prices will have dropped before they ship.

Which is also a reason for shops to say no more backorders for now

[alismith]

Another factor that didn't help the ammo supply, was the unprecedented ammo purchases made by the Fed a few months back....

[skorpion]

Wal-Mart here is stripped bare, also. Just so happened to be there the other day when they got 6 value-packs of 9mm and 6 value-packs of .40 in. That instant, the guy who was there before me bought three packs of 9mm and I bought the remaining three along with a couple packs of .40. After giving a buddy a heads-up text about some .40 being in stock, that disappeared, too. This same situation will be playing out at Wal-Marts across America for months, probably.

Things are different this time around with the current ban scare. This ain't 1994 any more. As mentioned many times before, the internet has recently been an incredible information-dispensing tool for gun owners. As a result, more folks are aware of the presence and the seriousness of the anti-rights tsunami coming (far from the "it's not going to happen" attitude from 20 years ago). In addition, the popularity of modern firearms has reached an unprecedented level. More folks are out there buying AR15s and other black guns, and it isn't just gun collectors and former military guys any more. Folks that experienced the '94 AWB remember the annoyances of expensive and hard-to-find magazines, as well as inflated prices for certain guns. These same folks have vowed to not be caught with their pants down this time, and so went out and stocked up on whatever they could while they could. In addition, there are the many new-comers to the firearm or AR15 world who never had the chances to buy cheap and stack deep like most of us. Finally, there are the folks who never felt a need, until now, to have more than two mags and a few dusty boxes of ammo.

All of the above factors have contributed to the perfect supply-and-demand storm. It's been a month since the main frenzy started, and companies are still getting more and more back-logged, despite running extra shifts and working extra hard. The minute a product trickles onto the shelf, it's gone before the glue on the back of the price sticker has a chance to dry. This consumer/supplier game of cat-and-mouse will probably go on for quite some time yet. Then, when the buying frenzy finally settles down, as we all know, the suppliers will finally be able to begin the catch-up process. To make matters worse, even after the dust settles, I doubt we will ever experience "cheap" ammo ever again. $.40+ per round of anything will be the new norm. I'm not a business major, nor am I Nostradamus, so I hope my predictions are shown to be wrong for the better some day very soon!

[Gunner1558]

Oldest son went to a small show yesterday. NO bricks of .22 available anywhere..

Rediculous prices asked for anything that goes Bang!

[El Laton Caliente]

Went to a new (two month old) gun shop, an established pawn shop and Wally World yesterday. The pawn shop had more ammo and a wider variety than Walmart. The poor gun shop was trying to build inventory when this hit and are having a terrible time stocking the shelves. The only saving grace is they sell what ever come in.

The pawn shop was rationing .22 at one box per customer. They had .223, but at $27.95 a box for Winchester White Box. They bought two cases from a customer for like $20 a box so they would have something in stock.

I bought cleaning supplies at Walmart, a P226 mag at the gun shop and two boxes of over priced .303 Brit at the pawn shop...

[binky59]

The only deals I'm getting here in NY is .223 at .66c per round for US stuff, but trading is
picking up. I'm stocked on everything now so I'm out of the game. Next buy is $120 for
5-30 round ar mags, see if that one happens.

[Altarboy]

Yeah I felt nicely stocked until all this happened. The big stuff I can moderate and I have plenty of 20g (which by the way I've noticed is starting to go quickly off the shelves). I only have around 1600 .22. I'd like another nice brick or two. I have muy black powder (the real stuff for my flintlocks) and maybe 250 .50 balls and maybe 40 .60s for the big musket.

[alismith]

Yeah I felt nicely stocked until all this happened. The big stuff I can moderate and I have plenty of 20g (which by the way I've noticed is starting to go quickly off the shelves). I only have around 1600 .22. I'd like another nice brick or two. I have muy black powder (the real stuff for my flintlocks) and maybe 250 .50 balls and maybe 40 .60s for the big musket.

Do you have any round ball moulds? A while back, I picked up a cap maker from Dixie so I can make caps to fit my BP rifles and revolvers.

[tank_monkey]

Yeah I felt nicely stocked until all this happened. The big stuff I can moderate and I have plenty of 20g (which by the way I've noticed is starting to go quickly off the shelves). I only have around 1600 .22. I'd like another nice brick or two. I have muy black powder (the real stuff for my flintlocks) and maybe 250 .50 balls and maybe 40 .60s for the big musket.

Jeez. With all of this panic, even I have to struggle to resist thinking ..... "I gotta rush out and buy something!!!" I know it's not rational, but panics are contagious.

As for your BP stuff, how threatened do you think your muskets are going to be? Just curious. I know the anti's hate anyone storing BP and try to make anyone out with any amount of it to be 'stockpiling explosives' blah blah blah, but have you heard anything re: BP guns?

[Schuetzenman]

Once there was a law that you could only own 5 lbs. of black powder, the limit got changed to 50 lbs. of it. Antigunners hate all weapons, they're going for the semi's now, if they get those they'll go for the pumps, if they get those they'll go for all rifles. Violence Policy Center came out with an Anti-Sniper Weapon package for the Politicians to use. It defined any weapon capable of shooting smaller than 3 " groups at 100 yards with an optical, (scope) sight on it as a Sniper Rifle. They want zero guns and that would eventually work it's way down to black powder, especially BP revolvers. My GOD, 6 shots without reloading .... the HORROR! They have to go ... if we can save even 1 CHILD it is WORTH IT!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Altarboy]

I have molds and the reason I stocked bp is I saw it going up in price. I paid around 10 bucks a pound for most of it.

[cootertwo]

How does that "cap maker" work? Link?

[Schuetzenman]

I have molds and the reason I stocked bp is I saw it going up in price. I paid around 10 bucks a pound for most of it.

Yikes, last I bought was $5.50 / lb. Yes it has been a long time.

[Altarboy]

Think bp is around 20 bucks a pd. Plus fewer people carry ot.now because of the trouble they go thru to legally sell it.

[Gunner1558]

Think bp is around 20 bucks a pd. Plus fewer people carry ot.now because of the trouble they go thru to legally sell it.

Last that I bought, just before Christmas, cost me $18.95 per pound.

I was in the store for other items and decided I needed a bit more.

The place I bought it has always been a bit pricey, but they carry a good inventory, so I shop there quite often.

[Schuetzenman]

Think bp is around 20 bucks a pd. Plus fewer people carry ot.now because of the trouble they go thru to legally sell it.

Yes there is a crap load of paper work to be able to stock and sell Black Powder. I looked at it once thinking maybe it would be a good way to make money. Then ATF sent a large book, actually it was two books that covered all the regs to legally sell Black Powder. The regs for having a magazine big enough to take a truck load is very steep. You have to have possibly 40 acres, (going off of memory) to put the powder magazine in the middle of to comply with the safety requirements for storing that much. Hell in a store for retail you are limited on how much, it has to be in a portable grounded fire resistant magaizne.

I use to get mine from the NMLRA when I would go to the national shoots they have there in Friendship, IN. NMLRA has a magazine on their grounds for storage.

[El Duce]

Had to make a wal mart run. For shits and giggles went by the sports section. They had a few 250 round packs of .45, and .40. I bought One of the .40 packs and a single box (last one) of 50 rounds. Cost a 100.00. Might go back tomorrow and pick up a .45 or two. 103.00 each.

[El Duce]

Went to wall mart to pick up some .45 and the lady working the counter asks me if I was looking for an ar. They had just got one in. A DPMS. 630.00 otd. So, I replaced the one that I sold.

[Altarboy]

My son and I went back to The Outpost and 7.62 went from 299.00 a 700 rd tin to 359.00 in a week. Gouging.

[Schuetzenman]

My son and I went back to The Outpost and 7.62 went from 299.00 a 700 rd tin to 359.00 in a week. Gouging.

I hope you didn't pay that as you'd be paying 51 cents a round for ammo that should still be a dime a round. Yes I know it's been more like 22 cents over the last few years.

[AK again]

Bought two boxes of subsonic 300 Whisper today to shove into the Blackout. WHOO HOO!

[Altarboy]

Naw I didn't hook up but my son was tempted. I was going to buy some .22 but all they had was shotshells and shorts. Sad.

[El Duce]

Ammoman has 7.62x39. 350/1000. 400 cases or so in stock. Makes me wonder if they "release" a few hundred cases, wait a week, jack the price and then "find" some more.

[MOP]

Walmart stores in Fort Worth, Texas

Have new stocks of PPU (blue box) .223 ammo @ $7.97 per box of 20 rds.

[alismith]

How does that "cap maker" work? Link?

Damn. I just went online to Dixie Gun Works and searched and they no longer carry it (checked their catalog, too). I bought it about 20-25 years ago and it makes great caps.

It looks like a modified, handheld paper punch and you cut a beer/soda can open and lay it flat and "punch" out the cap. The maker forms, then cuts it. Next, you go to a toy store and buy paper caps (fulminate) and push them inside and you have a fully functional cap. They work great, too.

If I can, I'll find mine and take a pic of what it looks like and post it here. Maybe, I can even find some caps I made.

[Altarboy]

Damn, thank you ElDuce. We just ordered a case from ammoman.com. If anybody sees any .223 let the board know.

[jet3534]

I have molds and the reason I stocked bp is I saw it going up in price. I paid around 10 bucks a pound for most of it.

Caps are the limiting factor unless one is shooting a flintlock.

[alismith]

Caps are the limiting factor unless one is shooting a flintlock.

Another source I've found for caps is in toy stores. They sell stings of yellow, or orange, plastic, slip-on caps for cap guns. I've cut them off and used them on my revolvers, too. They have about a 95% fire rate. Not perfect, but not too bad, either. One good point about them is they are fairly moisture proof when pushed on the nipple. I haven't had any trouble removing them after I fired them. A fingernail will flip them off.

[Schuetzenman]

Damn. I just went online to Dixie Gun Works and searched and they no longer carry it (checked their catalog, too). I bought it about 20-25 years ago and it makes great caps.

It looks like a modified, handheld paper punch and you cut a beer/soda can open and lay it flat and "punch" out the cap. The maker forms, then cuts it. Next, you go to a toy store and buy paper caps (fulminate) and push them inside and you have a fully functional cap. They work great, too.

If I can, I'll find mine and take a pic of what it looks like and post it here. Maybe, I can even find some caps I made.

http://www.midwayusa.com/Product/842064/forster-tap-o-cap-11-percusion-cap-maker Tap-o-Cap by Forster, they have them at Midway.
Price is about $30 bucks.
http://media.midwayusa.com/productimages/440x330/primary/842/842064.jpg
Sorry, I'm wrong it says the maker discontinued it but it does still show up on the on-line cat.

[El Duce]

Damn, thank you ElDuce. We just ordered a case from ammoman.com. If anybody sees any .223 let the board know.

7.62 gone! That was quick.