Will High Unemployment Continue ??

[Warthogg]

Looking at the unemployment numbers:

U-3 [7.8%] (This is the number we see in the paper.
U-6 [14.4%] (Broadest look and put out by Bureau of Labor statistics.)

There is another measure, SGS Alternate, that I won't bother with.

Now this is what I heard yesterday on FOX: THE US IS PRODUCING MORE GOODS AND SERVICES THAN BEFORE THE RECESSION AND WITH 4,000,000 FEWER WORKERS !!

Looks to me as if we are victims of our own increased productivity.........at least in part. Actually we have many jobs available what we don't have is the trained man power to fill high end blue collar jobs such as machinist.


Looks as if relatively high unemployment will be around for a loong time.


Wart

Everyone does not have to go to college. Not everyone should go to college.

I've purposely omitted politics from this post

[imanaknut]

Companies started taking the "lean" approach to manufacturing several years ago, and the management has figured out that you can make the same number of products with less employees. Many were nice and downsized by attrition, not replacing people as they retired, but some resorted to massive lay-offs. Now that they are doing just as good with less people, there is no reason to rehire those who were laid off, and might still not replace those who retire.

So yes we are a victim of more efficient productivity.

[5.56NATO]

Well, in the future when no one has a job, who is going to buy their "effiiciently produced" goods?

[samiam]

Well, in the future when no one has a job, who is going to buy their "effiiciently produced" goods?

It won't matter we'll all be gone . . . between the UN's Agenda 21 and GMO contaminated food supply the Nazi's win this time


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnlTYFKBg18

[whitelightning777]

All socialist countries suffer from chronic high unemployment. Obama-care will drive up the cost of using humans for labor and accelerate robotic development.

[5.56NATO]

Thanks for the vid, sam.

[Schuetzenman]

Will High Unemployment Continue ??
This is a rhetorical question right? Otherwise the answer is HELL YES!

[Warthogg]

Well, in the future when no one has a job, who is going to buy their "effiiciently produced" goods?

That's a part of my point. Small business could move fast to create jobs but small business will not get the needed capital. Large companies have untold billions in overseas banks.......tax for the host country already paid but, with the highest corporate taxes on planet earth, these companies will not bring that capital into the US and no new jobs will be created in the US.

Then add the mountains of regulations to be climbed.......

Almost like a plan to prevent growth.


Wart

[Punk]

Are you saying the govt is intentionally destroying our economy?!??!! Racist fear monger!

[O.S.O.K.]

Well, this is the first year that the health care act will have impact and it will accelerate lay-offs and hold-off hirings to keep under 50 employees.

I don't think that's going to help unemployment.

[Phil125]

As long as the goverment puts China's(globalisms) interests ahead of the USA's interests unemployment will be high. Liberal guilt is keeping unemployment high.

[Warthogg]

Well, this is the first year that the health care act will have impact and it will accelerate lay-offs and hold-off hirings to keep under 50 employees.

I don't think that's going to help unemployment.

Yup and more jobs will be part time.


Wart

[Warthogg]

Are you saying the govt is intentionally destroying our economy?!??!! Racist fear monger!

At best, at the very best, the .gov is doing little to help.




Wart

[studmuffin]

Sadly yes. Those in power seemed very determined to destroy our economy. They have something very big planned.

[binky59]

I worked for Eastman Kodak Co. for 27 years. when I started in 1975 they had 30,000 employees in Rochester NY
and 60,000 worldwide, through that time they sent jobs to China and Mexico, then started trimming down the
workforce here. From 1989 until present employees went from 30,000 to under 6,000, the companys stock went
from $100 per share in 87' to around .27 cents per share today and the company went into bankrupcy. I'm glad
that I got out when I did.

[Goodman]

Will High Unemployment Continue ??

Are you kidding? It is the new normal!
It gets better too- what with the Dims calling last quarter's national economic performance "the best looking contraction you'll ever see". It started in bambam's first year in D.C.. Remember the 'recovery summer'? And the lie just keeps rolling

[Cypher]

Is it a matter of producing more quantity in service and goos with less people or a matter of more revenue that could be due to inflation and not so much producing more goods and services?

I do think things will get worse and worse as fas as how many people are needed to do the same jobs as technology advances. Really even now most companies could probably trim a decent percentage of their workforce and replace it with some sort of technology weather it be computer related or robotic. I think the general population isn't as willing to accept it though. The Uscan things in a lot of big box stores is one example.

On one side I think it's the nature of technology made worse by bad politics but what happens when over half the work force can be automated.

[Napalm281]

Unemployment and an unstable economy will continue untill 2017. The problem is simple. Baby boomers hold the vast swath of 401K's and the majority are invested in stock. I told friends and relatives years ago that there would be a crash in 2008 due to this. Here is the problem.

First swath of baby boomers are born from 1946-1950

1946 birth equals turning 62 in 2008 -- early retirement -- But all the way up to 1949 births were reaching an age to access their 401K's 59 1/2 rule

In 2017 the 1950 babies will turn 67 (full retirement) so the first rung of baby boomers are flushed out of the system.

With the amount of stocks and bonds going up for sale from the cashing in of 401K's the value falls; Supply and demand.

Second; Large 401K firms do not wish to pay their clients full price so even if it did not destabilize the market the 401K firms would.

After 2017, with the system pretty well flushed, the economy will recover.

[Krupski]

Looking at the unemployment numbers:

U-3 [7.8%] (This is the number we see in the paper.
U-6 [14.4%] (Broadest look and put out by Bureau of Labor statistics.)



I don't believe unemployment numbers. They don't take into account people who have been trying to get a job forever and have run out of unemployment and given up hope, and they subtract any "newly created" jobs from the number while not adding all the lost jobs to the list. People not on unemployment benefits (because they ran out) are NOT counted as "unemployed".

Take what "they" publish and double it... THAT is probably more like reality.

[Krupski]

Everyone does not have to go to college. Not everyone should go to college.

I've purposely omitted politics from this post

Kids today are taught two things: (1) Look your nose down at any manual labor or even skilled labor and (2) Me mediocre - never excel lest you be called a "brain" or a "nerd" or a "jock" or any other myriad of derogatory names made up for people who are not cookie-cutter boring.

For #1, this makes all the kids want to go to college and be an "engineer" or anything other than "labor". Additionally, they are programmed to think that Joe on the assembly line shouldn't get $30 an hour for screwing in dome lights because he "didn't go to college" (AKA government indoctrination center). So what do we have now? A SHORTAGE OF SKILLED LABOR! Are we surprised?

For #2, being mediocre may be a winning strategy in high school, but after that, all the foreigners are kicking our asses in every high tech field because THEY value brains and studying and doing well in school and don't call the smart kids "nerds".

Not everyone should have to go to college to make a decent living. "Joe" the domelight guy certainly should get his $30 an hour... because he will give it back to society in the form of purchases and taxes.

But it will never happen. Today's youth are programmed quite well. They have been programmed to fail and they are carrying out their programming better than anyone could have hoped.

We're screwed.

[Krupski]

I worked for Eastman Kodak Co. for 27 years. when I started in 1975 they had 30,000 employees in Rochester NY
and 60,000 worldwide, through that time they sent jobs to China and Mexico, then started trimming down the
workforce here. From 1989 until present employees went from 30,000 to under 6,000, the companys stock went
from $100 per share in 87' to around .27 cents per share today and the company went into bankrupcy. I'm glad
that I got out when I did.

When CCD's first came out in the 1980's, my FIRST THOUGHT was "Oh God Kodak is dead". I didn't have any Kodak stock... but if I did I would have sold it the very DAY I learned about CCD imagers.

[Krupski]

After 2017, with the system pretty well flushed, the economy will recover.

Call me a nut (it's OK, you're supposed to when you hear this)... but the ONLY way our economy will ever recover is if the federal government mandates a trade imbalance in OUR favor. Federal law... you must export, say, $100 for every $80 or $90 you import. Until the hose it turned around and cash starts pouring back INTO America instead of OUT of it, we will NOT recover. Ever.

[Gunner1558]

Will High Unemployment Continue ??


Is the Pope a Catholic?

[Schuetzenman]

When CCD's first came out in the 1980's, my FIRST THOUGHT was "Oh God Kodak is dead". I didn't have any Kodak stock... but if I did I would have sold it the very DAY I learned about CCD imagers.

And Kodak is virtually dead. For me when digital cameras got to 4 mega pixels I belived that Kodak would soon be dead, that was the year 2000 for me.

[NAPOTS]

Kids today are taught two things: (1) Look your nose down at any manual labor or even skilled labor and (2) Me mediocre - never excel lest you be called a "brain" or a "nerd" or a "jock" or any other myriad of derogatory names made up for people who are not cookie-cutter boring.

For #1, this makes all the kids want to go to college and be an "engineer" or anything other than "labor". Additionally, they are programmed to think that Joe on the assembly line shouldn't get $30 an hour for screwing in dome lights because he "didn't go to college" (AKA government indoctrination center). So what do we have now? A SHORTAGE OF SKILLED LABOR! Are we surprised?

For #2, being mediocre may be a winning strategy in high school, but after that, all the foreigners are kicking our asses in every high tech field because THEY value brains and studying and doing well in school and don't call the smart kids "nerds".

Not everyone should have to go to college to make a decent living. "Joe" the domelight guy certainly should get his $30 an hour... because he will give it back to society in the form of purchases and taxes.

But it will never happen. Today's youth are programmed quite well. They have been programmed to fail and they are carrying out their programming better than anyone could have hoped.

We're screwed.

Krupsi, I must respectfully disagree with you on a couple of points. Screwing in a light bulb is not skilled labor, neither is installing a headlight, or putting the door on a car. If you can learn to do it in a week, so can anyone else. The value of a skill or trade lies in part in it's scarcity. College jobs aren't the only ones that should demand a good salary though; if you are a journeyman plumber or electrician, that is a trade and skill that took a lot of time to develop and can't be done by anyone, that should demand a decent salary. If you are a CPA, or a layer, engineer, chemist, etc, that took a long time to acquire the skill, and even longer to get the experience required for anyone to care. Brainless assembly line jobs (yes I know there are many skilled positions there but there are also many mindless, assemble this panel with 5 screws over and over jobs), cleaning jobs, etc can't demand much of a salary because they can be done by anyone willing to do them. Now if it is a really shitty job that most aren't willing to do, now it can start to demand more of a salary again because of it's scarcity.

I also think growing our technical competence in this country and safeguarding our innovation is what will save us in the long run. If we are a nation of factory workers, we will get passed up by the rest of the world, as evidenced by our current trade defect, anyone can do these jobs. If we have a nation of technically skilled and educated individuals we will be able to grow more than if it was the other way around. I'm not saying everyone needs a PhD in chemistry, but striving to be the best educated and most skilled workforce is a goal that will serve us.

With a few weeks of training one can pick fruit, wash dishes, mop floors. A few more weeks and they can do basic assembly, material handling, drive a forklift, etc. A few months, learn to paint, more complex assembly jobs, operate equipment. A few years, become a plumber, electrician, welder, machinist, etc. A few more years, become an account, engineer, etc. Even more years, lawyer, doctor, physics professor etc.

I am afraid I am sounding like an elitist here, but in my mind the longer it takes to acquire your skills and experience, the more you can ask for them, and vice versa.

[Krupski]

And Kodak is virtually dead. For me when digital cameras got to 4 mega pixels I belived that Kodak would soon be dead, that was the year 2000 for me.

The first CCD device I ever saw was a high end (at the time) camcorder. I knew how they worked and it was obvious that they would be steadily improved and eventually be used for STILL cameras too.

That's when I realized "film is dead" and therefore "Kodak is dead".

Around that same time frame, flash memory had just been invented. But I didn't picture flash memory being used for still image or video storage. They weren't large enough or fast enough (yet) to be useful.

I envisioned still cameras using digital tape (DAT) to record the images.

I wonder what kind of electronics we'll have in the next 10 to 20 years. Kids will laugh at the "archaic" technology we use today.

[Krupski]

(1) Krupski, I must respectfully disagree with you on a couple of points. Screwing in a light bulb is not skilled labor, neither is installing a headlight, or putting the door on a car. If you can learn to do it in a week, so can anyone else. The value of a skill or trade lies in part in it's scarcity.

(2) I am afraid I am sounding like an elitist here, but in my mind the longer it takes to acquire your skills and experience, the more you can ask for them, and vice versa.

(1) Concerning totally unskilled labor... sure anyone can do it. My concern is that it be an AMERICAN who does it and that he be paid a decent wage so that he can support his family. If you pay him $8 an hour, he will spend it all on expenses and taxes. If you pay him $50 an hour, he will spend it on expenses and taxes - and maybe be able to afford to send his kids to college so they can do better than he did.

So what's the difference? If the company who employs that guy is hurting financially, then yeah he should share in the burden. But if it's doing well, he should share in it's success. It's a two way street.

(2) Completely disagree. HOW LONG it takes to gain a skill should not be the sole determiner of what a person is worth. For example, a plumber's "education" isn't all that difficult. Anyone can learn how to do it. But do YOU want to wade knee deep in sewage to fix a broken pipe? I don't and I'll gladly pay a plumber a good wage to do it for me.

Money is nothing more than a "universal service exchange medium". If you have a barter system, a doctor may need bread, but a baker may not need the doctor. However, if the baker and doctor can convert their services into universal exchange media, they can barter with each other successfully regardless of whether or not that person's specific services are required at the moment.

When I buy a car, I want it to have a working dome light, and I'll pay someone a decent wage to do it for me... so he can have a successful family and make the whole Country stronger.

Or, we can just keep pumping money OUT of the Country and into China and the Middle East and delude ourselves by believing that politicians will "make the economy better". And we can pretend that unemployment is "only" 10 percent and falling.

But delusions don't put food on the table.

[Napalm281]

Krupsi, I must respectfully disagree with you on a couple of points. Screwing in a light bulb is not skilled labor, neither is installing a headlight, or putting the door on a car. If you can learn to do it in a week, so can anyone else. The value of a skill or trade lies in part in it's scarcity. College jobs aren't the only ones that should demand a good salary though; if you are a journeyman plumber or electrician, that is a trade and skill that took a lot of time to develop and can't be done by anyone, that should demand a decent salary. If you are a CPA, or a layer, engineer, chemist, etc, that took a long time to acquire the skill, and even longer to get the experience required for anyone to care. Brainless assembly line jobs (yes I know there are many skilled positions there but there are also many mindless, assemble this panel with 5 screws over and over jobs), cleaning jobs, etc can't demand much of a salary because they can be done by anyone willing to do them. Now if it is a really shitty job that most aren't willing to do, now it can start to demand more of a salary again because of it's scarcity.

I also think growing our technical competence in this country and safeguarding our innovation is what will save us in the long run. If we are a nation of factory workers, we will get passed up by the rest of the world, as evidenced by our current trade defect, anyone can do these jobs. If we have a nation of technically skilled and educated individuals we will be able to grow more than if it was the other way around. I'm not saying everyone needs a PhD in chemistry, but striving to be the best educated and most skilled workforce is a goal that will serve us.

With a few weeks of training one can pick fruit, wash dishes, mop floors. A few more weeks and they can do basic assembly, material handling, drive a forklift, etc. A few months, learn to paint, more complex assembly jobs, operate equipment. A few years, become a plumber, electrician, welder, machinist, etc. A few more years, become an account, engineer, etc. Even more years, lawyer, doctor, physics professor etc.

I am afraid I am sounding like an elitist here, but in my mind the longer it takes to acquire your skills and experience, the more you can ask for them, and vice versa.
Ever hung two car doors, attached the wiring and torqued them onto the car in 100 seconds???? Hmmm' maybe that is a skill.

Think of it this way.... Auto manufacturers get the BEST labor by paying the BEST. If you compete with mcdonald prices then you get mcdonald labor... Now picture the mcdonald guy who screwed up a simple combo meal order for you installing the safety devices in your car.... Yest they can be screwed up while they are installed and yes they will be screwed up when they are installed in your car if you have micky D class workers doing the installation... If you feel this is fine; labor be damned then please by all means never take a car back for a recall... You get what you pay for.

[Napalm281]

To give you a little more insight; I build cars; I work on an asembly line; And at times I repair cars. The factory I work in has an 80% washout rate on newhires. 4 out of 5 cant cut it.

If you have never done it then you really don't know what your talking about.

[Warthogg]

To give you a little more insight; I build cars; I work on an asembly line; And at times I repair cars. The factory I work in has an 80% washout rate on newhires. 4 out of 5 cant cut it.

If you have never done it then you really don't know what your talking about.

Many years ago, I had to work 1/2 day on the range assembly line as part of a training program. Had the company been dependent on MY assembly skills, would have gone broke in short order !!



Wart

[Napalm281]

On the line I work on it takes a week for a person to even be able to hold a station down on their own, Even then, they have to be watched, and at least 1 1/2 to 2 months for them to become pretty good at it. Each person is required to know at least 4 stations on the line so for them to become good at all you are looking at 6 to 8 months training. For a person to become expert in their station and learn all the defects they can cause plus be able to spot all the defects that are around their work area in the vehicle in order to stop defects from coming off the line it takes closer to a year. (anyone can put a tire on a car but; can anyone put 2 tires on a car and torque them down in 100 seconds repeatedly for hours on end and be able to spot one car out of 20,000 that has a wire running the wrong way in the wheel area that could cause the abs to fail in 5K miles?) Also; some jobs are inherently inpossible for some people to do due to the height of the person, weight of the person or, strength of the person. With this in mind each person has to be fit to a particular 4 stations that the person fits into.

I build vehicles every day that people are going to put themselves and their families into and drive from 55 to 75mph in. The customers are putting their faith in my co-workers and myself to build a safe car for them and their families. If I don't do my job correctly then someone could very well die or at the least be stranded somewheres as a result of it. In return I should be paid a decent living wage for producing a safe car for them to drive.

Would you want a car built by an entire crew of micky D workers who cant get 2 combo orders right when you go through the drive-thru? If you compete with micky D wages you will have Micky D workers doing the job of building your car. If your answer is yes; then you should never complain about a poorly assembled car!

[samiam]

Would you want a car built by an entire crew of micky D workers who cant get 2 combo orders right when you go through the drive-thru? If you compete with micky D wages you will have Micky D workers doing the job of building your car. If your answer is yes; then you should never complain about a poorly assembled car!

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5196/5902904019_15cedd4d6c.jpg

[Napalm281]

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5196/5902904019_15cedd4d6c.jpg

There's your car if you do!!!!!!:funny-post: