Some thoughts on the Ukraine situation...

[O.S.O.K.]

So, we all know that Russia is currently "on hold" with Ukraine... which has had a positive effect on the NYSE.

There's talk in the blogosphere that this is a ruse. That Putin is doing this on purpose in order to bolster the markets and get as many people "in" as he can. And then, he'll invade Ukraine in a blitzkrieg style push. Not far-fetched given that's what they did in 2008 in Georgia.

But this time, the effect of this could very well be a huge drop in the NYSE and as the NYSE goes, so go the world's markets.

Needless to say, a huge drop in the stock markets will have a domino effect on other markets and on interest rates.

The theory is that Putin is planning things in order to not only get control of Ukraine but to cause a world-wide economic crash as well.

China is supporting Putin and they have their own expansionist desires. They very well could play "Mussolini's Italy" or "Imperial Japan" to Russia's "Nazi Germany"... and make their move when Putin goes into Ukraine. This will only magnify the negative effects.

Bottom line - might be a good time to move your 401K over to bonds - out of stock mutual funds... or get out of dollars altogether if you can and invest in PM's, pay-off loans, etc. - maybe buy some bitcoin. Bitcoin will go up dramatically if the stock market takes a dump. It's still very new and risky but I think it's worth a small investment considering the huge upside potential...

I'm watching things - the first sign of trouble will be Russia's invasion - if that happens, then I strongly suggest you make your moves while you still can. I'll be purchasing some more silver and as mentioned, I'll buy some bitcoin if I'm not holding them at that time already... currently waiting for a "bottom" to buy... I sold off of my last buy and made $1000+ on the spread, which I'll roll back into more bitcoin on the next buy - at what I'll be guessing is a near peak in the cycle. Unless the invasion is going on and then I'll hold fast.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQzs0mDg0QyF8W9TuMFt4Zj9umwJ7zSp u9V_4dGFkQOEIkRGgdR

[coppertales]

From watching the news this morning, I think each side will try to trash each other's money standard. I am already out of the stock market. I just don't feel bitcoin is "real money". Gold and silver just hasn't done much in the last couple years, even though I have some......chris3

[5.56NATO]

Also Soros is betting the bubble pops. Of course watching and emulating what others perceived as expert do can place you into the trap they set for you, knowing you would respond as desired, to your loss. For example, when the battle of Waterloo was taking place a major bond buyer had direct input on the situation, wich others did not have. He pretended to be more and more morose and selling his shares at lower and lower price untill others started to emulate him, fearing the worst that the end was coming and their treasure in bonds would be worthless since the French were winning apparently. This allowed the genius broker to buy when everyone else was selling at insanely low prices, he had his minions buy up everything as the French were beaten soundly. This genius basically purchased the English government and corporate life and his family has owned it for centuries now.

[Viking350]

How does a world wide economic crash help Russia/Putin?

[5.56NATO]

He and his country is, for all practical porpoises, immune to it.

[El Jefe]

He and his country is, for all practical porpoises, immune to it.

The oligarchs that back him aren't.

[Viking350]

He and his country is, for all practical porpoises, immune to it.

How do you figure his country is immune?

[5.56NATO]

How do you figure his country is immune?

Compared to any other country with nuclear weapon systems, how much foreign trade takes place in Russia other than say the gas piped to the eu and arms sales? Nada. Maybe caviar and vodka? They're immune compared to any other nuclear power save for mebbe Pakistan.

Now China is very vulnerable to world economy crisis today due to their huge need for foreign trade. If they just had the free market of the west they'd be incredibly prosperous just making and selling to each other within Chinese borders.

[Viking350]

Compared to any other country with nuclear weapon systems, how much foreign trade takes place in Russia other than say the gas piped to the eu and arms sales? Nada. Maybe caviar and vodka? They're immune compared to any other nuclear power save for mebbe Pakistan.

Now China is very vulnerable to world economy crisis today due to their huge need for foreign trade. If they just had the free market of the west they'd be incredibly prosperous just making and selling to each other within Chinese borders.

Over 1/4th of Russia's GDP was the result of exports. I would say that is a big chunk to lose.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports-of-goods-and-services-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html

For the sake of comparison, the percent of GDP thast was a result of exports for the United States was 13.52%. That would seem to indicate that the U.S. could weather a global downturn better than Russia.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports-of-goods-and-services-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html

[5.56NATO]

Yes, and I bet those were energies of some sort like gas and oil and weapons.

[Viking350]

So far it seems that Russia's economy has fared far worse than ours.

http://news.yahoo.com/russian-stocks-down-banks-suffer-amid-sanctions-112555312--finance.html

[5.56NATO]

And Jefferson was spot on, the average Russian is unhurt because they live on the edge of economic disaster normaly, Putin's friends, the oligarchs, are the ones who may lose out. But it's not like Russia is sitting back and letting 0bama get off scot free.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/03/14/did-russia-just-dump-its-treasury-holdings/

Russia can also start demanding payment from Europe for the gas and oil Russia sells them in gold, silver, euros, yuan, anything but dollars.

[Pat Garrett]

The oligarchs that back him aren't.

And if he causes their toes to be stepped on, he''ll go the way of Jimmy Hoffa!:hungio8:

[El Jefe]

And if he causes their toes to be stepped on, he''ll go the way of Jimmy Hoffa!:hungio8:

Thats the interesting part of this. Just how much power within Russia's borders does Putin actually have?

To me, the Ukraine is Russia, and the Crimea most certainly is. I just can't get that worked up about it.

Russia may need to export oil and gas, but Europe is in a much bigger bind here. They'll back down, they have to.

[Pat Garrett]

Thats the interesting part of this. Just how much power within Russia's borders does Putin actually have?

To me, the Ukraine is Russia, and the Crimea most certainly is. I just can't get that worked up about it.

Russia may need to export oil and gas, but Europe is in a much bigger bind here. They'll back down, they have to.

What gets me right now is our "holier than thou" attitude over Crimea, when we bombed Serbia back to the stone age to allow Kosovo to secede, and basically become a de facto part of Albania. Can you say "HYPOCRISY?"

[l921428x]

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140326/DEFREG01/303260042/Hammond-Higher-Defense-Spending-Would-Not-Stopped-Russia-Crimea

[abpt1]

What gets me right now is our "holier than thou" attitude over Crimea, when we bombed Serbia back to the stone age to allow Kosovo to secede, and basically become a de facto part of Albania. Can you say "HYPOCRISY?"

My thought is fuck it!

let Russia have it we have enough on our plate.

[El Jefe]

What gets me right now is our "holier than thou" attitude over Crimea, when we bombed Serbia back to the stone age to allow Kosovo to secede, and basically become a de facto part of Albania. Can you say "HYPOCRISY?"

Agreed. There are a lot of folks who are very ignorant of Russian history. Putin isn't doing anything that his predecessors didn't do repeatedly. Any kind of a buffer zone between the homeland and whomever they feel threatened by, they'll instinctively try to build.

Anyone surprised by this, or who thinks this is the last move, is clueless. The nature of Russia is to be paranoid. Their history explains why.

[O.S.O.K.]

Russia is not immune to the ups and downs of the world economy. But consider that Putin is a long-range planner. He's working many steps ahead.

A currency war with the US will have something on the order of 20X worse impact on our country than his. And the aftermath very well could work out in Russia's favor - allowing them to experience a quick rebound. Not so much for us.

If the dollar is ruined, we'll be in for a long, slow climb out of the hole.

I'm just making observations and guesses based on what I've seen going on. It's obvious that Putin has no reservations about making decisive moves and assuming some risk. And as he's done so, he's no doubt observing that there's been much less push-back than there might have been - making the cost of his moves very low. Indeed, he's looking like a genius right now.

There are so many ways for us to get hammered right now. I just think it's prudent to position yourself in such a way as to minimize the impact on your finances - indeed, to place yourself in such a way as to gain from an economic hit.

You know that the people with real money are doing just that. They didn't get wealthy in the first place by sitting by and watching.

[5.56NATO]

For example of Russia never letting a good crisis go to waste, Russia just started replacement credit card companies to replace the western credit card cos that bailed from Russia. Also, Russia could demand payment in other than dollars for the energy it sells to Europe. And make no mistake, Europe needs Russia far more for energy than Russia needs Europe. Also they could sell their US bonds, wich isn't a lot but probly more than you or I hold. I expect Russia to counter the wests sanctions at every turn and possible being better off for it.