Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon.... oil is going to go way up

[O.S.O.K.]

What do you guys think one should be doing to prepare for this shit?

I'm thinking maybe a small cycle that gets really good gas milage... like a Yamaha TW200 = 70mpg.

At the same time, I probably need to conserve $$$.

If this shit pushes oil way up then we will defetely be seeing inflation - which will only push more people into insolvency.

I think we may very well be heading for some bad shit.

Glad I started prepping early - don't have to worry about most things - though I think I may go get some more food stores...

[jojo]

I think that because of the Lebanese and Egyptian collapses Europe will definitely being seeing harder times as far as fuel prices go. The big oil companies will hop on the band wagon and use every opportunity to raise prices regardless of what happens or where.

As far as a small bike goes. It couldn't hurt. There are plenty for sale during the winter season. Depends on how far you have to go each day. They do come in handy and are fun for general errands, oil crisis or not.

[TEN-32]

I'm wondering if this is the flashpoint. The ignition source for the whole shitstorm to go up. Like dominoes, nation after nation. The proverbial SHTF. Many said all along it would spark in the mideast.

[jojo]

I'm wondering if this is the flashpoint. The ignition source for the whole shitstorm to go up. Like dominoes, nation after nation. The proverbial SHTF. Many said all along it would spark in the mideast.

This is my concern aswell. If the Islamic Radicals take over Egypt it will certainly make the Palestinian situation look like childs play for Israel and will be terrible for all Christians or moderates in the area. Like Fallujah and Sadr City on steroids.

[Meat-Hook]

If/when they turn the Internet back on in all these countries that have turned it off,..the Storm will REALLY, spread. And all the dictators and authoritarian regimes know it.

If they shut down the Suez Canal,.its really going to get interesting. Shutting off the flow of food, oil and all commerce might invoke military intervention. Im wondering if the Pentagon has plans for this possibility.

Same with the U.S. Embassy(s). In case we see Jimmy Carter & 444 days of shame once again. Wonder if they have better prepared for that event this time around.??

the Dictators of the middle east and the world are not about to give up their throwns of power and wealth easily. This has the potential to set the whole ME into choas/turmoil which would drive oil prices thru the stratosphere. A good dirt bike, ATV, heck even a sound bicycle would be nice to have in reserve.

and your right OSOK,...if this situation blows up, I feel sorry (somewhat)) for all the sheeps out there who have never bothered to prepare.

[ubersoldate]

Im just not seeing this.
Egypt is not even in the worlds top 15 oil producers, and has almost nothing to do with US oil supply.

I mean Im down for the wishing of the end of the world mentallity and all, but I guess I am really not seeing where any of this matters untill The kingsdom of Saud gets involved, which Im pretty sure that the US government is NOT going to let fall anytime soon. They know, and we know it.

This is just another country, whos people are tired of a thirty year ruler, and are overthrowing...

I wonder if this was happening in south America, or Africa if it would even make the news here.

[HDR]

I'm wondering if this is the flashpoint. The ignition source for the whole shitstorm to go up. Like dominoes, nation after nation. The proverbial SHTF. Many said all along it would spark in the mideast.

Because it is logical a lot of writers use oil as the basis for the spark to WW3 and whenever oil is mentioned so is the Middle East. Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising is a good example.

It is very interesting that they said it long before oil was discovered.


Im just not seeing this.
Egypt is not even in the worlds top 15 oil producers, and has almost nothing to do with US oil supply.

I mean Im down for the wishing of the end of the world mentallity and all, but I guess I am really not seeing where any of this matters untill The kingsdom of Saud gets involved, which Im pretty sure that the US government is NOT going to let fall anytime soon. They know, and we know it.

This is just another country, whos people are tired of a thirty year ruler, and are overthrowing...

I wonder if this was happening in south America, or Africa if it would even make the news here.


Any nation with aircraft etc can raise havoc with oil shipping.

Is it the people or is it nut job fundamentalists orchestrating a revolution which will leave them in power? China, Russia, Cuba are all all examples of revolutions which left the people with the same or less than they had before. The reality of revolutions for the past 100 years or so is when it is over no matter who won the people usually lost.

Egypt didn't spend on Nukes, their money bought conventional weapons, chemical and biological weapons. If Egypt, Yemen, and Tunisia end up under radical Clerics there is a potential for a powerful alliance who can do us great harm by controlling oil or it's shipping routes. There is a great potential for an unstable Middle East to have a huge effect on the US oil supply.

I do agree that it is another country and it is none of our business which means 0bama and Hillary ought to butt out of it.

[HDR]

If/when they turn the Internet back on in all these countries that have turned it off,..the Storm will REALLY, spread. And all the dictators and authoritarian regimes know it.

Correct.


If they shut down the Suez Canal,.its really going to get interesting. Shutting off the flow of food, oil and all commerce might invoke military intervention. Im wondering if the Pentagon has plans for this possibility.

The Japanese started with a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor. With today's surveillance radars another Pearl Harbor is not probable; however, a first strike with out warning on the Suez Canal would shut off or severely limit our oil supply.


Egypt's "new government" could easily set explosives to destroy the canal or blackmail the world.

[El Jefe]

Im just not seeing this.
Egypt is not even in the worlds top 15 oil producers, and has almost nothing to do with US oil supply.

I mean Im down for the wishing of the end of the world mentallity and all, but I guess I am really not seeing where any of this matters untill The kingsdom of Saud gets involved, which Im pretty sure that the US government is NOT going to let fall anytime soon. They know, and we know it.

This is just another country, whos people are tired of a thirty year ruler, and are overthrowing...

I wonder if this was happening in south America, or Africa if it would even make the news here.

My concern is not just Egypt. Remember Tunisa was first, then Hezbollah started their shit, and now we have unrest in Albania, Jordan, Yemmen, Syria and no telling where else next. If all the dominoes start to topple, the price of oil will skyrocket! And what if the asshats in Iran decide this is a good time to pull a major stunt? Or what if the masses decide now is the time to finally act in Saudi Arabia? Right now there are far more questions than answers and as we know, the markets don't like that. Might be a good time to store a little fuel. I'm glad the wifes car gets 35 mpg.:smiley08:

[TEN-32]

It is very interesting that they said it long before oil was discovered.

I never thought about it like that, but yes it is very interesting.

[American Rage]

My concern is not just Egypt. Remember Tunisa was first, then Hezbollah started their shit, and now we have unrest in Albania, Jordan, Yemmen, Syria and no telling where else next. If all the dominoes start to topple, the price of oil will skyrocket! And what if the asshats in Iran decide this is a good time to pull a major stunt? Or what if the masses decide now is the time to finally act in Saudi Arabia? Right now there are far more questions than answers and as we know, the markets don't like that. Might be a good time to store a little fuel. I'm glad the wifes car gets 35 mpg.:smiley08:

It's almost as if somebody wants a greater Islamic nation?

Hmmmmm. That could be a problem.


Rage

[El Jefe]

It's almost as if somebody wants a greater Islamic nation?

Hmmmmm. That could be a problem.


Rage

Well, we know there are those who would love to see an all encompassing Caliphate reign over the Middle East and Northern Africa. But I don't see it happening. The EU isn't working all that well and if the Euro-weenies can't get along, I don't see disparate groups like those found in Islamic countries pulling it off. But who knows?

:wondering:

[Infidelski]

Revolution is never pretty but I enjoy seeing people rise to the street and take control of their governments. Egyptians trying to convince their dictator to leave doesn't mean prices will be unaffordable any time soon unless of course the entire region goes ape shit and overthrows all their governments. Thats what you call an unstable middle east. I feel its about time we left them to themselves, we've been dicking around over there for 30 years.

Egypt produces only 550k barrels a day, Saudi has been capable of producing 12-16 million barrels a day or more since the 70's and rarely if ever operates nears its ever growing capacity. While Egypt doesn't play into direct oil supply concerns it does play into a geopolitical policy that could hurt us real quick.

2011 has presented itself as a uniquely good time for the US to have real leadership and since we dont have any at all... I'll be headed over to fill up and/or refresh 35 gallons of the liquid gold this afternoon. Already missed this mornings 4 cent price jump at the corner store.

[imanaknut]

So at what point do we as a nation stop talking about it and build a few nuclear power plants and start extracting our own oil that is more plentiful than anyone wants to admit?!?!?!!?

[El Jefe]

So at what point do we as a nation stop talking about it and build a few nuclear power plants and start extracting our own oil that is more plentiful than anyone wants to admit?!?!?!!?

Nuclear, coal, oil, ect. If Barry really wanted to help the economy and make us less dependent on 3rd world shitholes he'd be pushing those items. But no, all that dipshit is interested in is windmills. He's a greenie and doesn't care about the consequences of his untenable energy policy.

[Infidelski]

So at what point do we as a nation stop talking about it and build a few nuclear power plants and start extracting our own oil that is more plentiful than anyone wants to admit?!?!?!!?

Never sounds about right... Duke energy is buying Progress Energy just so the combined affair can be large enough to finance new nukes and refueling of existing plants. JEA is thinking of buying into a GA nuke, cost $2billion for 440megawatts or 20% of capacity of the plant. Looks like new nukes are going to cost 4-5 times the price of a fossil plant. Natural Gas plants are far more efficient if we could only build enough of them we could turn around.


Nuclear, coal, oil, ect. If Barry really wanted to help the economy and make us less dependent on 3rd world shitholes he'd be pushing those items. But no, all that dipshit is interested in is windmills. He's a greenie and doesn't care about the consequences of his untenable energy policy.

EXACTLY !!! Barry said last week we need all the above to get right with energy, NOT TRUE at all if we open up the oil and gas valves. And he failed to highlight its going to be much more expensive his way, wind and solar are 3-5 times more expensive to install than traditional fossil fuel power plants and the solar only runs during 10-14 hours of daylight and wind only blows hard enough 30% of the time.... The green dream is just that!

[O.S.O.K.]

Im just not seeing this.
Egypt is not even in the worlds top 15 oil producers, and has almost nothing to do with US oil supply.

I mean Im down for the wishing of the end of the world mentallity and all, but I guess I am really not seeing where any of this matters untill The kingsdom of Saud gets involved, which Im pretty sure that the US government is NOT going to let fall anytime soon. They know, and we know it.

This is just another country, whos people are tired of a thirty year ruler, and are overthrowing...

I wonder if this was happening in south America, or Africa if it would even make the news here.

Uber, I know that you are more educated on this than most here. Do you not see this affecting the oil producing nations? SA, Kuwait, Yemen... ?

Do you think that it is likely that the MB will end up in control in Egypt or not? And what about Iran? Will this spread to Iran and to what end?

Nobody seems to be able to map out any kind of most probable cause/effect scenario.

We do know this: Lebanon is now under control of Hamas and Hamas is at least strongly influenced by Iran. The MB is the largest organized opposition group in Egypt... and seems to be exerting some control over the situation (reports are inconclusive). The Suez canal's "status" will definately affect the price of oil.

[El Laton Caliente]

The nightmare scenario... it not production, but logistics...

The Muslim Brotherhood with help from Hamas (who the sponsor) take over Egypt. They align with Iran. In a coordinated move Iran mines the Straights of Harmuth and Egypt sinks a ship in the Suez Cannal. This cuts off more than 20% of the world's oil production from getting to market. Oil hits $500+ per barrel and gasoline at the pump goes to $10 plus...

[HDR]

Egypt is not even in the worlds top 15 oil producers, and has almost nothing to do with US oil supply.

They control the Suez Canal which has a major influence on US oil supply.


Oil transported by sea generally follows a fixed set of maritime routes. Along the way, tankers encounter several geographic "chokepoints," or narrow channels, such as the Strait of Hormuz leading out of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Malacca linking the Indian Ocean (and oil coming from the Middle East) with the Pacific Ocean (and major consuming markets in Asia). Other important maritime "chokepoints" include the Panama Canal connecting the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, the Suez Canal connecting the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea, and the Bab el-Mandab passage from the Arabian Sea to the Red Sea. "Chokepoints" are critically important to world oil trade because so much oil passes through them, yet they are narrow and theoretically could be blocked -- at least temporarily. In addition, "chokepoints" are susceptible to pirate attacks and shipping accidents in their narrow channels.
http://www.solarnavigator.net/suez_canal.htm

[imanaknut]

While regulations are needed to keep those who build the nuke plants in line, there comes a time where removing some of the hoops they have to jump through and allow them to be constructed.

Accountability. It if is found that contractors take shortcuts, they should have things done to them such that the fear of what would be done would keep them on the straight and narrow since you really can't mess around when building a nuke plant.

Drilling for our own oil is the same. Tell the environmental wackos that if they are found trespassing on drilling sites, they will be treated as terrorists. Sabotage of drilling sites would be a capital crime.

The future of this country depends on us not being dependent on our enemies!

[ubersoldate]

Uber, I know that you are more educated on this than most here. Do you not see this affecting the oil producing nations? SA, Kuwait, Yemen... ?

Do you think that it is likely that the MB will end up in control in Egypt or not? And what about Iran? Will this spread to Iran and to what end?

Nobody seems to be able to map out any kind of most probable cause/effect scenario.

We do know this: Lebanon is now under control of Hamas and Hamas is at least strongly influenced by Iran. The MB is the largest organized opposition group in Egypt... and seems to be exerting some control over the situation (reports are inconclusive). The Suez canal's "status" will definitely affect the price of oil.

Lebanon is under control in part by Hezbolla, Hamas is a palestinian entity.
The hez are an army, and although many dont agree with them, they are possibly the best fielded irregular army in our time.

Ive stated what I think in the other thread, but I really believe that with Hosni now stepping down, I really feel that this could be a greater change than expected in not only Egypt but the middle east, and possibly even the world.
He was a dictator, and his country was falling more and more in debt, he did not listen to his people, he did not give them a real choice in his bs voting system.

There are some major differences in Egyptians and other Arabs/Muslims in that area.
They are uppity, they are taught that their culture is older than the worlds religions.
A very independent people and I hope that this turns out in a positive light.
Egyptians have killed more islamic militant leaders than one can even say, they have had thier greatest leaders killed by them, they know how dangerous these people are.
This is not a Jihad nation.


Now I know, that FOX news is pushing this fear agenda like crazy, I mean they have the CRISIS written in flames at the bottom of the screen, and the Muslim brotherhood has been mentioned at least a dozen times since Ive started this post.
I like fox, but hannity is a media jockey who wants ratings, pure and simple.
He has almost zero knowledge of the MB, and has not taken the time to even do his homework, its downright scary because people believe the words of him and beck like the words of God.

Is the MB OK? Hell no, they are not, but they are a minority, and NOT liked in their country.
So some research, you will come to the same conclusion that most have.

As HDR has brought up the Canal is the most serious issue. As it can be blocked and our oil flow will be cut off.
But I have a feeling there are a few people in the USN that will have some issues with that, even more since it they would not be cutting us off, they would be stealing what we have already paid for.
I just don't see it happening, maybe I'm wrong, but imo, I just dont see it being an issue.
Now I would not be saying this is we are talking about Arabia.

Fact is, we went there, we showed them that their 20th century leaders can be toppled, hanged in gymnasiums, city's destroyed, and a real government can be put in place, that people have a voice.
I think whats happening in Egypt is nothing more than an extension of what we started. But it would be ridiculous to say that what is happening in Egypt is the same as Yemen, or Tunisia.
I dont know shit, but I do know, that Ive set foot in a few of these countrys, one of them egypt and Jordan, and I know how different the people can be from one side of a line in the sand to another. They arent all the same, all muslims arent the same, and jihad is not a tennent for everyone, it just isnt.

You have seen your fair share of fear mongering video clips in the media about these riots over the years.
Have you ever seen one with almost no deaths, no burning American or Israeli flags?
Have you ever seen a muslim rally, where coptic christians can walk right into the mix and not be harmed?
How about the PRO hosni group that walked into the heart of the rally today, and were not hurt and were let to speak?
I mean that is not the norm in some of these countrys.
Im not saying there is going to be no violence in the future, Im saying that I think its for the better, and I HOPE it works out for the better of the Egyptian people, and our dumbass president supports them, so that we will have a real friend in the region that we didnt install, which in the end will mean more to them than anything else Im sure.
Wouldnt it to you?
Hosni is out tomorrow, so lets see what happens, none of us will know untill the ball gets rolling, but I really hope that in the end, we get the hell out of the ME, use our own oil resources, and let these people decide what to do with their own country's with us leaving them alone and stop sending aid.
If they attack us, destroy them, if they help us, help them. After that, I think it would be better to step out of the worlds police roll, and take care of our own country for a while.

[O.S.O.K.]

Thanks Uber - that's what I was looking for. Appreciate your insight.

We all know that Fox is just as guilty as any media entity at hyping a story that has potential to keep people riveted to the TV and getting their advertisers maximum exposure.

One thing is apparent - this whole situation took a lot of people, who should have seen this coming, completely by surprise...

[ubersoldate]

Fox is my channel, but I have to say, there are a few commentators who make me sick....

[O.S.O.K.]

Orightly is the one that bugs me the most - he's such a smug, self-important ass. But I still watch him sometimes when he's got someone interesting on - it is fun to watch him rip into some of them...

All in all though, Fox is head and shoulders above the others. But I really try and get many sources of information, from different perspectives.

[ubersoldate]

Orightly is the one that bugs me the most - he's such a smug, self-important ass. But I still watch him sometimes when he's got someone interesting on - it is fun to watch him rip into some of them...

All in all though, Fox is head and shoulders above the others. But I really try and get many sources of information, from different perspectives.

O'Reily is the one I like, I was a longtime beck listener on the radio, but he just makes my stomach turn when he got his tv show...
The crying, whining, and self importance just gets me. You are a commentator, not a leader, dont let it go to your head. I miss his radio show when he was more a newsman than an actor.

Hannity is interesting, but again, he uses to much of his personal opinion rather than the facts in his news...
I wish Fox would put more people in there who just reports the news, without personal insight.
Still better than CNN though...

[TEN-32]

Interesting thread. Good perspectives. :thumbsup: I really appreciate some of the diverse thought here.

[HDR]

Yemen is leaning now..

That means a potential stoppage at the entrance to the Red Sea and the exit.