Red Alert: Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

[Warthogg]

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.Red Alert: Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood
January 29, 2011 | 1655 GMT

The following is a report from a STRATFOR source in Hamas. Hamas, which formed in Gaza as an outgrowth of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), has an interest in exaggerating its role and coordination with the MB in this crisis. The following information has not been confirmed. Nonetheless, there is a great deal of concern building in Israel and the United States in particular over the role of the MB in the demonstrations and whether a political opening will be made for the Islamist organization in Egypt.

Related Special Topic Page
The Egypt Unrest
The Egyptian police are no longer patrolling the Rafah border crossing into Gaza. Hamas armed men are entering into Egypt and are closely collaborating with the MB. The MB has fully engaged itself in the demonstrations, and they are unsatisfied with the dismissal of the Cabinet. They are insisting on a new Cabinet that does not include members of the ruling National Democratic Party.


Security forces in plainclothes are engaged in destroying public property in order to give the impression that many protesters represent a public menace. The MB is meanwhile forming people’s committees to protect public property and also to coordinate demonstrators’ activities, including supplying them with food, beverages and first aid.
.



This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with attribution to www.stratfor.com






Wart





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.Red Alert: Mubarak Names Former Air Force Chief as New Egyptian PMJanuary 29, 2011 | 1626 GMT
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The Egypt Unrest
Egypt’s former air force chief and minister for civil aviation, Ahmed Shafiq, has been designated the new prime minister by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and tasked to form the next Cabinet, Al Jazeera reported Jan. 29. The announcement comes shortly after Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman was appointed vice president, a position that has been vacant for the past 30 years.
Mubarak is essentially accelerating a succession plan that has been in the works for some time. STRATFOR noted in December 2010 that a conflict was building between the president on one side and the old guard in the army and the ruling party on the other over Mubarak’s attempt to create a path for his son Gamal to eventually succeed him. The interim plan Mubarak had proposed was for Suleiman to become vice president, succeed Mubarak and then pass the reins to Gamal after some time. The stalwart members of the old guard, however, refused this plan. Though they approved of Suleiman, they knew his tenure would be short-lived given his advanced age. Instead, they demanded that Shafiq, who comes from the air force — the most privileged branch of the military from which Mubarak himself also came — be designated the successor. Shafiq is close to Mubarak and worked under his command in the air force. Shafiq also has the benefit of having held a civilian role as minister of civil aviation since 2002, making him more palatable to the public.

Mubarak may be nominally dissolving the Cabinet, ordering an army curfew and now asking Shafiq to form the next government, but the embattled president is not the one in charge. Instead, the military appears to be managing Mubarak’s exit, taking care not to engage in a confrontation with the demonstrators while the political details are being sorted out..




This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with attribution to www.stratfor.com





Red Alert: Mubarak Names Former Air Force Chief as New Egyptian PM | STRATFOR



Wart

[samiam]

"The MB is meanwhile forming people’s committees to protect public property and also to coordinate demonstrators’ activities, including supplying them with food, beverages and first aid."

So the bad guys are really the good guys?

[mriddick]

So the bad guys are really the good guys?
I think it just means the bad guys are origianizing and taking over. It's probably just a matter of time before the 80% majority decides now is the time to get rid of the 20% minority (ratio of muslims to non)

[El Laton Caliente]

"The MB is meanwhile forming people’s committees to protect public property and also to coordinate demonstrators’ activities, including supplying them with food, beverages and first aid."

So the bad guys are really the good guys?

No, the much worse guys are trying to take power from the not as bad guys... even the mafia does image promotion and manipulation.

[samiam]

I think it just means the bad guys are origianizing and taking over. It's probably just a matter of time before the 80% majority decides now is the time to get rid of the 20% minority (ratio of muslims to non)

I'm not sure this is religious in nature I think it's more economic. The median age is 24, average income $1800/yr, "official" unemployment 9.7%, food prices went up 21%, I think the people are saying "Fuck this shit"

[O.S.O.K.]

Good job on the OP Wart - the notations, etc. - thanks for doing it right. :)

And I think this may actually have a beneficial effect on the region - if this proves to be a pro-democracy move and results in a new government with free elections and non-fundamentalist leadership, and we see similar progress in the other countries involved, it could actually spur the people of Iran to revolt against their current masters - and force democracy there too.

That is, if the mooselim brothers don't manage to put themselves in power....

Wow.

This is optomistic but from what I'm seeing and from other comments from members with a good handle on this, I think it may just be a real possibility.

Wouldn't that be a kick?

The only bad thing is that zero will claim credit for it in some way - that his apology tour and feel good speaches actually caused this to happen... yeah, right. But you know once they rebound from the shock and surprise of being blindsided by this, they will rally and try and figure out how to spin it in their favor.

And the koolaid drinkers and a certain number of fence sitters will believe it...

[Warthogg]

I'm not sure this is religious in nature I think it's more economic. The median age is 24, average income $1800/yr, "official" unemployment 9.7%, food prices went up 21%, I think the people are saying "Fuck this shit"

ECONOMIC.....certainly YES....at least at this point.

I'm going to try and quote/paraphrase from memory and I may very well be wrong. (Even worse I'm gonna be trying to quote/paraphrase Hannity who is 'probably' wrong !!)

'..................60% of the (Egyptian) population is under 30 and 90% of that 60% is unemployed.......'

High unemployment and high (double digit) inflation in the food sector is the stuff uprisings are made of.


Wart

[Warthogg]

Good job on the OP Wart - the notations, etc. - thanks for doing it right. :)

Thanks much. STRATFOR B picky on what you can post.


Wart

[El Laton Caliente]

I'm not sure this is religious in nature I think it's more economic. The median age is 24, average income $1800/yr, "official" unemployment 9.7%, food prices went up 21%, I think the people are saying "Fuck this shit"

It is almost always economic, but extremists use a crisis to take power weither Islamic or Communist and the end result is a facist dictatorship... normally worse than what it replaced.

[O.S.O.K.]

I just hope the MB doesn't gain control. If the military is controlling the progression and has the support of the protestors then perhaps it will be OK...

If the MB gains control, everyone will suffer.

[Warthogg]

I just hope the MB doesn't gain control. If the military is controlling the progression and has the support of the protestors then perhaps it will be OK...

If the MB gains control, everyone will suffer.

What little I know says the military is well respected by the Egyptian people. After all was the military that over threw the monarchy back in the (?)1950's.

HOWEVER, if there are no jobs, not enough food and no hope of getting either I don't see how any regime can maintain respect or survive even in the intermediate term.


Wart


Again, the world would do well to remember that how goes Egypt goes the Middle East.

[shorthair]

Keep an EYE on rouge Cement Trucks moving to the border. Their worth their weight in GOLD.:laugh:

[Warthogg]

Memo Naval Update Agenda



.The Egyptian Unrest: A Special Report

January 29, 2011 | 2207 GMT

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak remains the lifeblood of the demonstrators, who still number in the tens of thousands in downtown Cairo and in other major cities, albeit on a lesser scale. After being overwhelmed in the Jan. 28 Day of Rage protests, Egypt’s internal security forces — with the anti-riot paramilitaries of the Central Security Forces (CSF) at the forefront — were glaringly absent from the streets Jan. 29. They were replaced with rows of tanks and armored personnel carriers carrying regular army soldiers. Unlike their CSF counterparts, the demonstrators demanding Mubarak’s exit from the political scene largely welcomed the soldiers. Despite Mubarak’s refusal to step down Jan. 28, the public’s positive perception of the military, seen as the only real gateway to a post-Mubarak Egypt, remained. It is unclear how long this perception will hold, especially as Egyptians are growing frustrated with the rising level of insecurity in the country and the army’s limits in patrolling the streets.

There is more to these demonstrations than meets the eye. The media will focus on the concept of reformers staging a revolution in the name of democracy and human rights. These may well have brought numerous demonstrators into the streets, but revolutions, including this one, are made up of many more actors than the liberal voices on Facebook and Twitter.

After three decades of Mubarak rule, a window of opportunity has opened for various political forces — from the moderate to the extreme — that preferred to keep the spotlight on the liberal face of the demonstrations while they maneuver from behind. As the Iranian Revolution of 1979 taught, the ideology and composition of protesters can wind up having very little to do with the political forces that end up in power. Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood (MB) understands well the concerns the United States, Israel and others share over a political vacuum in Cairo being filled by Islamists. The MB so far is proceeding cautiously, taking care to help sustain the demonstrations by relying on the MB’s well-established social services to provide food and aid to the protesters. It simultaneously is calling for elections that would politically enable the MB. With Egypt in a state of crisis and the armed forces stepping in to manage that crisis, however, elections are nowhere near assured. What is now in question is what groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and others are considering should they fear that their historic opportunity could be slipping.

One thing that has become clear in the past several hours is a trend that STRATFOR has been following for some time in Egypt, namely, the military’s growing clout in the political affairs of the state. Former air force chief and outgoing civil aviation minister Ahmed Shafiq, who worked under Mubarak’s command in the air force (the most privileged military branch in Egypt), has been appointed prime minister and tasked with forming the new government. Outgoing Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman, who has long stood by Mubarak, is now vice president, a spot that has been vacant for the past 30 years. Meanwhile, Defense Minister Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi (who oversees the Republican Guard) and Egypt’s chief of staff of the armed forces, Lt. Gen. Sami Annan — who returned to Cairo Jan. 29 after a week of intense discussions with senior U.S. officials — are likely managing the political process behind the scenes. More political shuffles are expected, and the military appears willing for now to give Mubarak the time to arrange his political exit. Until Mubarak finally does leave, the unrest in the streets is unlikely to subside, raising the question of just how much more delay from Mubarak the armed forces will tolerate.

The important thing to remember is that the Egyptian military, since the founding of the modern republic in 1952, has been the guarantor of regime stability. Over the past several decades, the military has allowed former military commanders to form civilian institutions to take the lead in matters of political governance but never has relinquished its rights to the state.

Now that the political structure of the state is crumbling, the army must directly shoulder the responsibility of security and contain the unrest on the streets. This will not be easy, especially given the historical animosity between the military and the police in Egypt. For now, the demonstrators view the military as an ally, and therefore (whether consciously or not) are facilitating a de facto military takeover of the state. But one misfire in the demonstrations, and a bloodbath in the streets could quickly foil the military’s plans and give way to a scenario that groups like the MB quickly could exploit. Here again, we question the military’s tolerance for Mubarak as long as he is the source fueling the demonstrations.

Considerable strain is building on the only force within the country that stands between order and chaos as radical forces rise. The standing theory is that the military, as the guarantor of the state, will manage the current crisis. But the military is not a monolithic entity. It cannot shake its history, and thus cannot dismiss the threat of a colonel’s coup in this shaky transition.

The current regime is a continuation of the political order, which was established when midranking officers and commanders under the leadership of Gamal Abdel Nasser, a mere colonel in the armed forces, overthrew the British-backed monarchy in 1952. Islamist sympathizers in the junior ranks of the military assassinated his successor, Anwar Sadat, in 1981, an event that led to Mubarak’s presidency.

The history of the modern Egyptian republic haunts Egypt’s generals today. Though long suppressed, an Islamist strand exists amongst the junior ranks of Egypt’s modern military. The Egyptian military is, after all, a subset of the wider society, where there is a significant cross- section that is religiously conservative and/or Islamist. These elements are not politically active, otherwise those at the top would have purged them.

But there remains a deep-seated fear among the military elite that the historic opening could well include a cabal of colonels looking to address a long-subdued grievance against the state, particularly its foreign policy vis-à-vis the United States and Israel. The midranking officers have the benefit of having the most direct interaction — and thus the strongest links — with their military subordinates, unlike the generals who command and observe from a politically dangerous distance. With enough support behind them, midranking officers could see their superiors as one and the same as Mubarak and his regime, and could use the current state of turmoil to steer Egypt’s future.

Signs of such a coup scenario have not yet surfaced. The army is still a disciplined institution with chain of command, and many likely fear the utter chaos that would ensue should the military establishment rupture. Still, those trying to manage the crisis from the top cannot forget that they are presiding over a country with a strong precedent of junior officers leading successful coups. That precedent becomes all the more worrying when the regime itself is in a state of collapse following three decades of iron-fisted rule.

The United States, Israel and others will thus be doing what they can behind the scenes to shape the new order in Cairo, but they face limitations in trying to preserve a regional stability that has existed since 1978. The fate of Egypt lies in the ability of the military to not only manage the streets and the politicians, but also itself.




This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with attribution to www.stratfor.com


.




Wart

[mriddick]

I'm not sure this is religious in nature I think it's more economic. The median age is 24, average income $1800/yr, "official" unemployment 9.7%, food prices went up 21%, I think the people are saying "Fuck this shit"

I think that's what it is now but in time I bet the 80% will start to view the 20% as enemies.

[insider]

Let's see, high unemployment, high prices, and a government that don't give a crap...wow, sounds like America!

[HDR]

So why should I believe these articles any more or less than the ones I read which applaud 0bama?

:D