Gingrich leads, but Paul most likely to beat Obama in latest poll

**LAGC** · 12-06-2011, 04:33 AM

With less than a month before the Iowa caucus, GOP presidential candidate and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has surged into the lead, but Texas Rep. Ron Paul is the only Republican candidate who could best President Obama, a new Iowa poll says.

According to the latest NBC/Marist poll, Gingrich is the first choice among 26 percent of Republican caucus-goers, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 18 percent and Paul with 17 percent.

The poll represents a dramatic shift in the race. In October, Romney led the field in Iowa with 26 percent, while Gingrich only received a paltry 5 percent of the vote.

With Herman Cain’s announcement on Saturday that he would suspend his campaign, the NBC/Marist poll predicted that Gingrich’s support will increase to to 28 percent, while Romney and Paul tie at 19 percent.

“As the roller coaster picks up speed in the month leading up to the Iowa caucus, Newt Gingrich has moved into the lead car,” said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, in a statement. “Hold on tight for any further twists and turns.”

However, the poll also says Paul is the candidate best suited to face Obama in an election.

Against Paul, 42 percent of registered voters in Iowa support Obama and the same number — 43 percent — support Paul. Paul’s popularity among independents could be a crucial advantage. Paul leads Obama 42 percent to 35 percent among independent voters, according to the poll, and he also attracts 15% of Iowa’s Democrats. Not to mention that 16 percent of voters were undecided.

Against the rest of the field, Obama wins a hypothetical race handily.

Obama leads Gingrich by a 10-point spread in a hypothetical contest, garnering 47 percent of the vote to Gingrich’s 37 percent, with 16 percent undecided.

In a matchup against Romney, the president has a seven point lead: 46 percent to Romney’s 39 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/gingrich-leads...181751047.html

It's becoming increasingly clear that Obama is going to win Iowa (and several other crucial battleground states) by large margins next year if Newt or Mittens become the nominee.

**mriddick** · 12-06-2011, 06:59 AM

Now if his supporters can only get out the vote, which is where they always have failed. Whats funny about a RP supporter is they are usually more concerned about talking down to you and showing how smart their position is they normally turn off potential voters. I've seen this at shows where they set up, they have a group (such as me) open to voting for RP but merely being willing to vote isn't enough. I've seen volunteers calling potential voters stupid for not understanding the finer details of the evil of the fed... I sort of laugh and walk on, over the years we've seen the same here, why use a carrot when there's a stick I guess

**samiam** · 12-06-2011, 09:42 AM

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-215_162-...on-paul-upset/

“Ron Paul is definitely for real out here,” says Tim Albrecht, the communications director for Iowa governor Terry Branstad, who has not endorsed any GOP candidate. “He is going to get 18 percent in the caucuses no matter what. If there’s a snowstorm, he’ll probably win, since he has such dedicated, passionate supporters.

**O.S.O.K.** · 12-06-2011, 09:59 AM

Originally Posted by mriddick

Now if his supporters can only get out the vote, which is where they always have failed. Whats funny about a RP supporter is they are usually more concerned about talking down to you and showing how smart their position is they normally turn off potential voters. I've seen this at shows where they set up, they have a group (such as me) open to voting for RP but merely being willing to vote isn't enough. I've seen volunteers calling potential voters stupid for not understanding the finer details of the evil of the fed... I sort of laugh and walk on, over the years we've seen the same here, why use a carrot when there's a stick I guess

You alway seem to have some disparaging thing to say about the libertarians. What were you saying about Tea Party people? I wasn't good. Now this.

Just what group do you like?

---

I like Ron Paul. I think he goes too far with his defense cuts but I agree that we should close 75% of the foriegn bases. He advocates shutting them all down. That's just not practical and I am surprised every time he suggests it.

The thing is, I would be comfortable with him as POTUS because of our checks and balances government. He would be moderated by the congress.

Overall, I agree with his domestic policy that he's discussed. I would love to see what he'd do to the Fed

I'd love to hear him stating plainly that we need to legalize drugs. I'd love to hear him speak plainly about eliminating welfare.

It would be a very interesting 4 years.

**imanaknut** · 12-06-2011, 01:06 PM

It is really sad that the republicans are having a hard time finding a candidate that the greater majority can rally behind. It is also unfortunate that their front runners are so repugnant that there is a very good chance that the republican party is doing a good job helping the obama-messiah re-election campaign.

**mriddick** · 12-06-2011, 01:21 PM

Thanks for proving my point, I have stated many times already I'm willing to vote for RP but that said it is not quite good enough for you guys is it and that was my point, you guys just have to talk down if that person doesn't show proper devotion to your man. If I'm OK with settling on the guy my advice is take the vote and be happy...

And yes with this field right now I feel like I'll be settling with whoever I'll probably be voting for. It seems odd with as weak and obama is we have such a weak field to choose from to replace him with.

**O.S.O.K.** · 12-06-2011, 02:37 PM

He's not my man. I was just noting that you tend to denigrate somewhat members of conservative or libertarian groups.

I am afraid that if RP gets the nod that he'll go off talking about pulling all US military back to this country and lose 70% of the vote.

He has a propensity to say shit that really makes him look like a loon at the most inoportune time.

I personally think that Newt with all his warts is the best candidate at this point.

And I would love to see him execute his plan for debating Obama - or getting him to debate. I would love to see him following Obummer all around the country and immediately smacking him down after every teleprompter presentation until he has to face him in a debate.

Newt will absolutely destroy Obummer in a debate - even if it's rigged as he will start smacking the idiot media hosts around like he did earlier in the repub debates. That earned him a lot of points.

**weevil** · 12-06-2011, 05:12 PM

Yeah the guy doesn't thrill my soul but given the choice between Newt and Mitt I'll pick Newt.

Be nice to have somebody I could whole heartedly support but as usual I'm picking the lesser of two evils.

I just can't bring myself to like Romney no matter how hard I try, anybody even Newt has gotta be better.

**mriddick** · 12-06-2011, 05:29 PM

Originally Posted by O.S.O.K.

He's not my man. I was just noting that you tend to denigrate somewhat members of conservative or libertarian groups.

I am about 180 out from the average libertarian, I do tend to find them philosophically shallow. I don't think I've ever hid this. As for the conservative movement, today that pretty much means anything goes except raising taxes, Newt would probably be a poster boy for proof of that. I am an old time social conservative who stands for fiscal responsibility, again that's nothing I've ever hid which again puts me out 180 from today's economic conservatives.

Newt fails on so many levels personal and politically I really think he's no better then Romney, I'm still waiting and I fear I'm running out of time.

**weevil** · 12-06-2011, 07:08 PM

Werll one thing with Newt is I'd love to seem him in a debate with Obama.

Newt would ream him a new one, the little sucker is quick on his feet and thinks fast.

Romney not so much, him and Obama would just be two sides of the same coin reading from their notes and looking good for the cameras.

**mriddick** · 12-06-2011, 07:14 PM

We heard that with Trump, we heard that with Cain, heck some were pushing Perry as the ultimate debater before it was proved he couldn't debate his way out of a paper bag. So far in the debates all Newt has done is played the big brother giving compliments and direction to the rest of the R's while attacking the moderator as unfair. I've not seen anything in any debate that would lead me to believe either tactic would work against obama.

**El Laton Caliente** · 12-06-2011, 07:22 PM

Chapman University predicts Obama election loss

All that adds up to Obama losing by 8.1 percent

http://totalbuzz.ocregister.com/2011...on-loss/80498/

The computer model says Obama loses no matter who he runs against...

**weevil** · 12-06-2011, 07:27 PM

Originally Posted by mriddick

We heard that with Trump, we heard that with Cain, heck some were pushing Perry as the ultimate debater before it was proved he couldn't debate his way out of a paper bag. So far in the debates all Newt has done is played the big brother giving compliments and direction to the rest of the R's while attacking the moderator as unfair. I've not seen anything in any debate that would lead me to believe either tactic would work against obama.

So you think Romney would do a better job???

**mriddick** · 12-06-2011, 07:43 PM

Originally Posted by weevil

So you think Romney would do a better job???

Not really but I do believe sometime we want things so bad we fail to see reality. Really what has Newt done in any of the debates that leads you to believe he would trounce obama? As I've stated so far his MO is to be the fatherly figure to the rest of the R's in the field, that's not going to work against the mighty 0... Then he attacks the moderator as unfair or having a bias, again it plays to the base but he isn't going to win a debate arguing with the moderator. In his public speaking gigs I'd say right now he's running roughly 2 times good to 1 grandiose flub again not great odds. Then you have his history, his flip flops, his morals, his mistakes, him being him that can be attacked. IMO Newt and Romney are almost the same, one is not better then the other, they are almost too similar in my book to tell apart.

**weevil** · 12-06-2011, 07:51 PM

Originally Posted by mriddick

Not really but I do believe sometime we want things so bad we fail to see reality. Really what has Newt done in any of the debates that leads you to believe he would trounce obama? As I've stated so far his MO is to be the fatherly figure to the rest of the R's in the field, that's not going to work against the mighty 0... Then he attacks the moderator as unfair or having a bias, again it plays to the base but he isn't going to win a debate arguing with the moderator. In his public speaking gigs I'd say right now he's running roughly 2 times good to 1 grandiose flub again not great odds, then you have his history, his flip flops, his morals, his mistakes, him being him that can be attacked. IMO Newt and Romney and almost the same, one is not better then the other, they are almost too similar in my book to tell apart.

Well be that as it may it's coming down to those two and I said,

Originally Posted by weevil

Yeah the guy doesn't thrill my soul but given the choice between Newt and Mitt I'll pick Newt.

Be nice to have somebody I could whole heartedly support but as usual I'm picking the lesser of two evils.

I just can't bring myself to like Romney no matter how hard I try, anybody even Newt has gotta be better.

Or four more years of Obama.

I'll even vote for Romney if it comes down to that choice.

We can bicker and nit-pick and lose another election or put our differences aside and get behind a candidate.

**mriddick** · 12-06-2011, 07:56 PM

Originally Posted by weevil

We can bicker and nit-pick and lose another election or put our differences aside and get behind a candidate.

That's just it, the primaries haven't even started yet. Now is the time to vote your heart. It's in the general that we should be worrying about voting the choices we got.

**weevil** · 12-06-2011, 08:04 PM

Originally Posted by mriddick

That's just it, the primaries haven't even started yet. Now is the time to vote your heart. It's in the general that we should be worrying about voting the choices we got.

I would love to be voting with my heart!

Unfortunately none of the bozos running on either side does a thing for my heart except make it sink, just some more than others.