War in Iran: A Recession Will Follow

[Warthogg]

There is little excess oil production and the insurance companies can and will shut down oil shipments if Iran attacks shipping.


Wart

Saudi Arabia has not increased its oil production, despite rising prices. This indicates that Saudi Arabia is already at its limit of production.

http://teapartyeconomist.com/2012/01...n-will-follow/

If Iran cuts production in any war, there are no replacement sources.

After spending huge amounts on fortifying their production, the Gulf countries are now reluctant to push output to the very brink and leave them bereft of a supply cushion.

China is looking for additional suppliers. It is dependent on Iranian oil. India and Japan are also desperately shopping. There is no new source. There has not been for 40 years.

If war breaks out in the Persian Gulf — Iranian Gulf is more like it — Iran needs to sink two tankers to send shipping insurance rates through the roof. Shipments will cease. Oil prices will skyrocket.

You had better be in gold.

[O.S.O.K.]

Shit. You can add this to the list of things that will cause a world wide depression. Not recession. We are in a recession right now...

[mriddick]

On the bright side I read a report that sanctions on Iran could force them to sell their oil at a discount which could lower the price of oil. I guess alittle pressure could be beneficial, too much and it screws everything up.

[coppertales]

by puting troops on the ground in africa. He will probably start a rumble with iran just because he can which will cause a world wide depression which will give him the grounds to declare marshall law here in the US............chris3

[O.S.O.K.]

marshall law in the US = civil war in the US

[Warthogg]

by puting troops on the ground in africa. He will probably start a rumble with iran just because he can which will cause a world wide depression which will give him the grounds to declare marshall law here in the US............chris3

Speaking of Africa, seems turmoil in Nigeria has increased enough to make their oil shipments questionable. I don't see how Iran and Nigeria going off-line can be a good thing.

Wart


I also have absolutely no confidence in Saudi Arabia's ability to make up the short-fall.

[Warthogg]

marshall law in the US = civil war in the US

I'm just not sure of that. New Orleans should be instructive to us.


Wart

[mriddick]

Not to be overly corrective but I believe it's Martial law...

[Warthogg]

Not to be overly corrective but I believe it's Martial law...

(and 'sitting'....not "setting").

[dishman]

I'm just not sure of that. New Orleans should be instructive to us.


Wart

drill baby drill! and new orleans is a good example of how law and order will collapse thru out the us if a depressioon hits due to oil prices spiking,i will be laughing my ass off at all the people that invest in oil futures/companies gloating how they are making so much money in the market..the money will be useless down the road.
i am oil about capitalism and investing,but when the market is artificially manipulated thru war or back room deals..it will crash at some point.
i think the economy is at a tipping point and if we have a shooting war in the strait of hormoz..well game over and iran knows this.

[O.S.O.K.]

OK, martial law = civil war in the US.

And New Orleans is a very poor example in that it is not at all representative of overall America. I know - I go there all of the time.

Plus, we are not talking about a natural disaster where everybody is sitting on their rooftops...

[N/A]

Plus, we are not talking about a natural disaster where everybody is sitting on their rooftops...

But the rooftops would be the high ground.